豆类报告：需求显差异豆类外强内弱

Report Information - Report Date: March 3, 2026 [4] - Report Title: "Demand Shows Difference, Beans Strong Overseas and Weak Domestically" [5] - Author: Bi Hui, Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures [6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current beans market continues to show a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly, while the domestic beans market is sluggish in following the rise [7] Summary by Directory I. US Soybean Exports Face Structural Dilemma, Price Disadvantage Suppresses Export Prospects - The US Department of Agriculture's February report maintained the US soybean production and the estimated ending inventory of 350 million bushels, setting a tone of loose supply and demand. The record - high production forecast in South America further strengthened the global supply pressure [8] - US soybean exports face a structural dilemma. South American soybeans dominate the global soybean trade flow with cost and yield advantages, making US soybeans less competitive. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and tariff policies disrupt the US soybean trade flow, causing difficulties in market access and sales pressure for US farmers [8] - The core pressure on US soybean exports comes from China's shift in procurement focus. Brazilian soybeans' record - high production makes their quotes more attractive, and Chinese oil mills' purchases for February - March shipments are mainly from South America. This price disadvantage is the root cause of the erosion of US soybean export share [8] - US domestic policies are a key variable disturbing export expectations. Concerns about global trade tensions intensify, and the market worries that it will further suppress the export prospects of US soybeans. In the short term, US soybean exports will continue to be under pressure, and their recovery depends on the return of US trade policies to stability and the substantial repair of Sino - US soybean trade relations [8] II. US Soybean Crushing is in a High - Prosperity Cycle, Biofuel Policy Provides Demand Space - US domestic crushing demand is very strong and in a high - prosperity cycle, which provides key bottom support for US soybean prices. The core driving force comes from biofuel policies. The US Environmental Protection Agency's blending volume regulations and the Treasury Department's tax credit policies bind soybean oil demand to the biofuel industry, directly driving the demand for soybean crushing [9] - The market is closely watching the new proposal that the EPA plans to finalize by the end of March 2026. The core impact lies in the policy signal affecting market expectations. Even before the final rules are issued, a clear policy - making schedule and upward adjustment expectations are enough to boost market sentiment and support soybean oil prices. The short - term market trend closely revolves around the introduction of biodiesel policy details, and the specific values will determine the increase in soybean oil demand and then affect the upper limit of US soybean crushing volume [9] - In January 2026, the soybean crushing volume of members of the US National Oilseed Processors Association reached 221.564 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%, setting a record high for the same period. As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.06 per bushel, significantly higher than the average crushing profit of $2.46 per bushel in 2025. High profits are the direct economic motivation for crushers to maintain high operating rates [9] - The strong crushing demand, in contrast to the weak export situation, makes crushing the core channel to digest the domestic soybean supply in the US, providing bottom support for US soybean prices. The strong domestic crushing demand effectively offsets the negative impact of Brazilian soybeans' record - high production and price competitiveness, keeping US soybean prices oscillating strongly. Domestic demand becomes the stabilizer of the US soybean supply - demand balance [9] III. Domestic Beans Have Prominent Structural Contradictions, High Inventory Pressure Continues - The domestic beans market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, with prominent structural contradictions. The market supply is abundant, and the arrival volume of imported soybeans remains high, resulting in port and oil mill inventories remaining at historical highs [10] - The transmission of import costs to domestic prices is not smooth. The core contradiction is that the high raw material costs are seriously inverted with the weak downstream product prices, squeezing the oil mill crushing profit and causing the industry to generally fall into losses [10] - Driven by rigid factors such as the continuous arrival of previously purchased soybeans and the pressure to digest inventory, the operating rate of oil mills is still higher than the historical average, which further exacerbates the oversupply of products such as soybean meal, suppressing spot prices and basis [10] - Overall, domestic beans prices are in an oscillating range with industrial hedging and high inventory suppression on the upper side and import cost support on the lower side. The short - term weak pattern is difficult to fundamentally reverse [11]