软商品日报：震荡延续-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton maintains a relatively strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to the sixth round of Sino - US negotiations. The demand outlook remains uncertain, and the market price has slightly declined with cautious restocking by textile enterprises [1]. - The global sugar market is in a pattern of overall supply surplus, which exerts pressure on sugar prices. However, due to factors such as the low proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year, the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, and the potential impact of increased ethanol production in Brazil on sugar output, a low - buying strategy is recommended, and the post - March delivery trend of raw sugar should be monitored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Small textile enterprises that were delayed due to the holiday have resumed operation, and textile enterprises have basically fully resumed production. Downstream market procurement has gradually emerged, but overall it remains cautious, and restocking is not active, with resistance to price increases. The cotton price has slightly decreased, and restocking by textile enterprises remains cautious [1]. - In mid - March, the storage, inspection, and transportation of cotton in warehouses will gradually return to normal, and the outbound volume of Xinjiang cotton by road and rail will rebound, which is expected to increase the warehouse receipts and commercial inventory in inland warehouses [1]. - The Middle East conflict over the weekend did not affect the cotton sector, and the impact of Trump's visit to China on cotton demand remains uncertain [1]. Sugar - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 260.896 million tons, an increase of 22.119 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.625 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a year - on - year increase of 0.13% [1]. - The potential bullish factors brought about by the lower - than - expected production increase in countries such as India and Thailand still need final verification, and the overall supply surplus in the global sugar market continues to pressure sugar prices [1]. - The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand. In the first half of the year, the proportion of imported sugar is small, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has widened. Rising crude oil prices are conducive to Brazil increasing ethanol production, which may change the "sugar - ethanol ratio" and reduce sugar output [2].