尿素日报：能化品种分化，尿素表现不佳-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being strong. The domestic supply and demand fundamentally dominate the futures price, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. After the energy and chemical sector rises, be vigilant about the potential for urea to make up for the increase [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures opened low and moved lower, and the decline in futures prices dampened the enthusiasm for spot trading. The spot price remained generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton. The daily production has reached around 220,000 tons, and there are no long - term shutdown and maintenance plans in the short term. Although the upstream factories accumulated a relatively large amount of inventory during the holiday, the current inventory level is much lower than that after the Spring Festival last year. March is the peak season for agricultural demand, and the demand for high - nitrogen compound fertilizers is expected to be strong, providing support for urea. However, the release of national reserves will still impact the price acceptance in the spot market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1818 yuan/ton, closed at 1819 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38%. The trading volume formed a negative line, and the open interest was 266,075 lots (+3,294 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 444 lots, and the short positions increased by 4,102 lots. For example, GF Futures had a net long position of - 704 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of - 508 lots; Zhongtai Futures had a net short position of +1,318 lots, and Yide Futures had a net short position of +1,677 lots [2] Spot - The weakening of futures prices dampened the enthusiasm for spot trading, and the spot price remained generally stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][4] Warehouse Receipts - On March 3, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, which was the same as the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot price rose, while the futures closing price fell. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was 41 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - On March 3, 2026, the national daily urea production was 216,500 tons, which was the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 86.77% [9]