铁矿日报：发运增加，铁水复苏-20260303

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure of iron ore are difficult to alleviate in the short term. The iron water output on the demand side has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. With the upcoming Two Sessions and positive macro - expectations, along with the futures still showing a BACK structure under a positive basis, the iron ore market will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated strongly during the day, closing at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or - 0.13% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 240,000 lots, the open interest was 533,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.833 billion yuan. The iron ore stopped falling and rebounded as expected after falling to the previous low, and the short - term support below has moved up to around 745. It is still treated with a strong rebound idea in the near future [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 2 to 753 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped 2 to 642 yuan/ton, and the main swap was 99.1 (+0) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to rebound and strengthen, while the spot price slightly declined [1]. - Basis and spread: The Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disc price was 781.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 28.3 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened; the iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 20.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrivals this period remained at a low level and decreased slightly month - on - month, but are expected to rebound later. The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure are difficult to alleviate in the short term [2]. - Demand: Due to the mismatch of blast furnace restart and maintenance time, the iron water output increased significantly month - on - month this period, the steel mill profitability rate slightly recovered, and the rigid demand increased marginally. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of iron water. Attention should be paid to the demand support after the festival [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased month - on - month, and the berthing inventory decreased. During the Spring Festival, steel mills mainly consumed inventory, and the factory inventory decreased significantly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: Domestic policies are synergistically strengthened, consumption is high - frequency warm, and the real estate market has marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Real estate transactions were still at a low level, but the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The special bond quota was raised, but the investment structure was adjusted, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [4]. - Overseas: Overseas consumer confidence has recovered, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks have increased. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee have fermented, and the risk premium affects the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. Coupled with Trump's strengthening of the stance against Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and hedging premiums. The overall situation shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising" [4].