焦煤日报：化工品上行-20260303

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened higher and moved higher, with an intraday increase of over 4%. Due to the Iran-US conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, although the fundamentals of coking coal are weak, the market rallied due to emotional spillover. However, after the market calms down, the market may correct due to downstream drag [1]. - The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, and domestic mines are gradually resuming work. The inventory of coking coal mines has increased by 6.04 tons, while the inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have been depleted for two consecutive weeks after the Spring Festival. The support for winter storage replenishment has ended. After the festival, steel mills have shown a slight recovery, with an increase of 2.79 tons in molten iron production. During the Two Sessions, steel mill emissions reduction may interfere with short - term operations. The market is waiting and expecting policies, and new real - estate stimulus policies have been introduced in many places, but the performance of the terminal market still needs attention [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and moved higher, with an intraday increase of over 4%. The Iran - US conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have affected the market. Although the fundamentals of coking coal are weak, the market rallied due to emotional spillover, and there is a risk of correction after the market calms down [1]. - The supply of imported coal is gradually recovering, domestic mines are resuming work, and the开工 load has increased by 20%. After the festival, the inventory of coking coal mines has increased, while the inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have been depleted. The support for winter storage replenishment has ended. Steel mills have shown a slight recovery, and the molten iron production has increased. During the Two Sessions, steel mill emissions reduction may interfere with short - term operations. The market is waiting for policies, and new real - estate stimulus policies have been introduced, but the terminal market performance still needs attention [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1013 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - The closing price of the main contract futures is 1127 yuan/ton, the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply Data: From February 21st to February 27th, the coking coal production rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 68.24%, a month - on - month increase of 19.35 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 64.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.02 tons [4]. - Demand Data: From February 21st to February 27th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 64.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 233.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79 tons [5].