橡胶甲醇原油：地缘风险提振，能化延续强势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rubber: On Tuesday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, opening high and moving low, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The closing price dropped slightly by 1.55% to 16,835 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 130 yuan/ton. As the new rubber tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a high - level oscillating trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday this week, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising strongly, and closing sharply higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,557 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,394 yuan/ton, closing sharply up 11.03% at 2,557 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 99 yuan/ton. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, methanol外运 has stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the methanol premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the methanol futures price may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the future [7]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday this week, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising strongly, and closing sharply higher. The futures price reached a maximum of 572.3 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 544.1 yuan/barrel, closing sharply up 12.00% at 572.3 yuan/barrel. With the military conflict between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil外运 has stagnated, supply has fallen into shortage, and the crude oil premium has increased significantly. It is expected that the oil price may maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 tons or 1.82%. Bonded area inventory was 11.81 tons, an increase of 6.52%; general trade inventory was 56.18 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [11]. - As of February 27, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises in the next cycle still has an obvious upward expectation [11]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, and the index was above the boom - bust line [12]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [12]. Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%, a small month - on - month increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a small week - on - week increase of 16,400 tons, a small month - on - month increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons in the same period last year [13]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a small week - on - week increase of 1.61%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a small week - on - week increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.44 percentage points and a small month - on - month increase of 2.65% [13]. - As of February 27, 2026, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 43 yuan/ton, a small week - on - week recovery of 39 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month recovery of 246 yuan/ton [13]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a small week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons, a small month - on - month decrease of 44,600 tons, and a small year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of February 25, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 535,300 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 195,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 81,100 tons, and a significant increase of 150,700 tons compared with 384,600 tons in the same period last year [14][15]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week increase of 0 and a decrease of 79 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 200,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [16]. - As of the week of February 20, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 435.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 15.989 million barrels and a small year - on - year increase of 5.643 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.899 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 881,000 barrels; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 88.6%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a slight month - on - month decrease of 2.3 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points [16]. - As of February 24, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 172,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 31,369 contracts and a significant increase of 99,898 contracts compared with the average of 72,814 contracts in January, with an increase of 137.20%. As of February 24, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 300,712 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 50,696 contracts and a significant increase of 116,266 contracts compared with the average of 184,446 contracts in January, with an increase of 63.04% [17]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,850 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 16,835 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | +15 yuan/ton | +460 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,480 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | 2,557 yuan/ton | +192 yuan/ton | - 77 yuan/ton | - 67 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 512.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 572.3 yuan/barrel | +44.5 yuan/barrel | - 59.5 yuan/barrel | - 45.6 yuan/barrel | [19] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides multiple charts including rubber basis, May - September spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [20][22][24][28][30][32]. - Methanol: The report provides multiple charts including methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic methanol port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][35][37][39][41][43]. - Crude Oil: The report provides multiple charts including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [46][48][50][52][54][56].