沪铜日报：关注下游启动情况-20260303

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price has been under pressure and declined due to the spill - over of risk - aversion sentiment from the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the strengthening of the US dollar. The fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand fails to provide effective support, and the subsequent recovery of the copper market depends on the start - up of downstream industries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing an intraday decline. The US ISM manufacturing index in February expanded for two consecutive months, and the Iran conflict may increase inflation pressure. A bridge collapse in Zambia and floods disrupted the copper export route in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but the local road development agency aims to resume traffic within 48 hours [1] - The SMM China electrolytic copper production in February decreased by 36,900 tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year - on - year, 110 tons lower than expected. The production in March is expected to increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, and may reach a record high [1] - Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. With the policy impact on the domestic scrap copper industry chain, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports. The high copper price has led to strong resistance from downstream terminals, weakening the demand in the copper products sector. Currently, it is the off - season and the high price, so the performance of downstream copper products is expected to remain under pressure [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, showing an intraday decline [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is -185 yuan/ton, and in South China is -160 yuan/ton. On March 2, 2026, the LME official price is 13,285 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is -55 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 24, the spot TC is -50.97 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC is -5.02 cents/pound [9] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 300,500 tons, an increase of 4,624 tons from the previous period. As of March 2, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 91,100 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 257,700 tons, an increase of 3,975 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 601,700 short tons, an increase of 493 short tons from the previous period [13]