玻璃、纯碱日报：日内短线走强-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - peak season), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the market rebound. In the medium - term, glass demand expectations remain weak. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Two Sessions' policy news and the external situation [2] - The core contradiction in the soda ash market is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not improved. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and strong, but in the medium - term, it depends on the Two Sessions' policy news and whether the high inventory can be continuously reduced [3] Summary by Related Content Glass - Today, the main glass contract opened lower and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing signal of a trumpet shape, indicating short - term volatility. The pressure is near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, and the support is near the previous low. The trading volume decreased by 361,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 36,536 lots. The intraday high was 1055, the low was 1027, and the closing price was 1054, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.67% from yesterday's settlement price [1] - Most domestic deep - processing enterprises are still shut down. In North and Northeast China, downstream processing enterprises have mostly not started work and will start after the Lantern Festival. Some export - order enterprises are still rushing orders due to tax - refund policies. In Central and Southwest China, downstream factories generally started work late after the Spring Festival, mostly from the 16th to the 20th day of the first lunar month, with a small number starting from the 8th to the 10th day. Currently, most enterprises have poor order - receiving situations. In East China, most downstream factories will start after the Lantern Festival, and only a few are rushing work due to export orders and tax - refund policies. In South China, most downstream deep - processing enterprises will start after the Lantern Festival, and a few factories made appropriate purchases after the raw - material enterprises raised prices after the Spring Festival [1] Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract strengthened during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands showed an opening trumpet shape, indicating a short - term volatile and strong signal. The intraday pressure is near the previous high, and the short - term support is near the 60 - day moving average on the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 10,177 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest increased by 76 lots. The intraday high was 1221, the low was 1171, and the closing price was 1218, up 27 yuan/ton or 2.27% from yesterday's settlement price [3] - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 192.95 million tons, an increase of 3.51 million tons or 1.85% from the inventory on February 26. Among them, light soda ash inventory is 101.29 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44 million tons, and heavy soda ash inventory is 91.66 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.07 million tons [3] - The current demand for heavy soda ash is average, and the better demand for light soda ash offsets the reduction in heavy soda ash demand to some extent, but the overall situation is still in an oversupply pattern with continuous accumulation of high inventory. The industry is currently in continuous losses, and some device overhauls provide certain support for prices. Although the demand is in the recovery stage, the actual downstream start - up situation is still unclear. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies and market sentiment during the important meeting at the beginning of this month [3]