软商品日报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly and remained in high - level oscillation. Spot basis was stable, and spot trading was average. Downstream demand feedback was weak in the short term [2] - US cotton was strong, with expected reduction in 2026 planting area. Domestic commercial inventory was digested well, and the expectation of tight supply continued [2] - After continuous short - term rises, cautious operation was recommended [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas after the rainy season was unfavorable for sugarcane growth, and the sugar - making ratio was expected to decline, leading to a decrease in sugar production in the 26/27 season [3] - Zhengzhou sugar was strong. As of January 31, 2025/26 season, national sugar production and sales progress was slow, with production and sales volume decreasing year - on - year and industrial inventory increasing [3] - Temporary waiting - and - seeing was recommended [3] Apple - Futures prices rose with significant position increase. Spot prices were stable. After the Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm in the northwest producing areas increased, and the delivery speed accelerated [4] - As of February 27, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased by 5.88% year - on - year, and the delivery volume increased by 32.49% year - on - year [4] - The trading logic was mainly on the demand side. Temporary waiting - and - seeing was recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR futures prices rose and then fell, butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated violently. Domestic natural rubber spot prices fell, and synthetic rubber spot prices rose [6] - Global natural rubber supply was in the low - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate increased. In February, China's heavy - truck sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the domestic tire operating rate recovered [6] - Natural rubber and 20 - rubber were recommended for waiting - and - seeing, and butadiene rubber was expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level. As of February 26, 2026, the inventory was 240.1 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [7] - Overseas pulp quotes were strong, providing some cost support, but demand was average, and downstream paper prices and profits were poor [7] - The pulp price was expected to oscillate in a range in the medium term [7] Timber - Futures prices oscillated, and the spot price at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan. The external offer was low, and the domestic spot price was weak. The short - term arrival volume would decrease [8] - Due to the Spring Festival shutdown, the downstream delivery volume was small. As of February 27, the national port log inventory decreased by 15.3% year - on - year [8] - Temporary waiting - and - seeing was recommended [8]