螺纹日报：两会限产提供短期支撑，后续关注政策出台及需求恢复-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is in a stage of "weak reality + strong expectation" with a game between short - term production contraction and weak demand. The high inventory suppresses price elasticity, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside and downside support from costs. If demand significantly recovers in mid - to - late March, it may be the key to break the price situation [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The open interest of the main rebar contract decreased by 21,925 lots on Tuesday, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with 788,272 lots. The short - term average price broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,057 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,078 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.07% [2] - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,190 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 116 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis was still large [3] Fundamental Data - Supply: Before the Spring Festival, the weekly rebar production declined from a high level. In the week of February 26, 2026, the rebar production was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 414,000 tons lower than the same period in the previous year. The production in 2026 was significantly lower than that in the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills actively reduced production around the Spring Festival to cope with weak demand and inventory pressure [4] - Demand: Terminal demand dropped sharply and was at a historical low. In the week of February 26, 2026, the current apparent demand was only 33,550 tons, a decrease of 54,600 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decline of 157,160 tons, being at the lowest level in the same period of the past three years. This was mainly due to the seasonal off - season caused by construction site shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the decline was far greater than in previous years, indicating weaker expectations for demand recovery this year [4] - Inventory: Both factory and social inventories increased, and the total inventory was still lower than the same period last year. Factory inventory was 232,840 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,770 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1,430 tons. Social inventory was 567,760 tons, a week - on - week increase of 72,790 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,410 tons. The total inventory was 800,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 84,560 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62,840 tons. Although the week - on - week increase was significant, the year - on - year decrease was still large, indicating that the overall industry inventory pressure was less than in previous years [4][5] - Inventory - to - sales ratio: It was at a high level, reflecting the imbalance between supply and demand. The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 167.04, a significant year - on - year increase to 135.35. A high inventory - to - sales ratio meant that the current inventory level was much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply - demand mismatch was serious, which would suppress the rebound space of steel prices until demand substantially recovered [5] - Cost and profit: The steel mill profit rate was stable, and the cost support weakened marginally. The steel mill profit rate remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast furnace production. However, pressure emerged on the raw material side: the iron ore port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; and coking coal imports continued to grow, weakening the cost support [5] - Macroeconomic aspects: In 2026, policy expectations for the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan" increased, with pre - issued projects such as central budgetary investment, underground pipe networks, and urban renewal, strengthening the expectation of infrastructure support. However, in the short term, due to the 10% tariff imposed by the US on imported goods, market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the post - Spring Festival demand recovery rhythm, the market entered a "policy game period" [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The Two Sessions are about to be held, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [6] - Bearish factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the de - stocking speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [6] Short - term View Summary - On Tuesday, the rebar open interest decreased, trading volume shrank, and the price closed up in a volatile manner. It is expected to continue a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term. The upper pressure should be focused on the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term support should be focused on the previous low. The upcoming Two Sessions' production restriction expectations provide short - term support. Although the situation between the US and Iran has escalated, its impact on rebar is limited [6]