山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260303

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that trade - war risks have eased while geopolitical risks have increased. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts is at a low level [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have caused a global chain reaction, affecting shipping, aviation, and the oil industry, threatening global energy costs and business activities in the Gulf region [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, US producer prices accelerated in January, and the Fed's January meeting minutes showed a large divergence among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with the possibility of interest - rate hikes being mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen significantly [1]. - Regarding the commodity attribute, the Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; platinum has strong expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry; palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that in the short term, gold will be strong while silver, platinum, and palladium will be weak. In the medium term, they will oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, the bullish trend remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, high - selling and low - buying are suggested. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are advised [2]. - Price Data: International prices (Comex gold active contract: $5296.40/ounce, up 1.82% from the previous day and 3.24% from last week; London gold: $5222.30/ounce, up 1.06% from the previous day and 3.35% from last week). Domestic prices (Shanghai gold main contract: 1197.22 yuan/gram, up 4.30% from the previous day and 7.85% from last week; gold T + D: 1142.48 yuan/gram, up 3.07% from last week) [2]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex gold position is 420182 lots, up 3.90% from last week; Shanghai gold main contract position is 154545 lots, up 2.93% from the previous day and 0.92% from last week; gold T + D position is 45964 lots, down 4.56% from last week. LBMA inventory is 9158 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1048 tons, down 1.48% from last week; Shanghai gold inventory is 105 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can engage in high - selling and low - buying with proper position management and stop - loss/take - profit [5]. - Price Data: International prices (Comex silver active contract: $94.39/ounce, up 6.21% from the previous day and 11.61% from last week; London silver: $89.98/ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 11.76% from last week). Domestic prices (Shanghai silver main contract: 24431 yuan/kg, up 6.13% from the previous day and 23.50% from last week; silver T + D: 22369 yuan/kg, up 16.08% from last week) [5]. - Position and Inventory Data: Comex silver position is 125454 lots, down 4.59% from last week; Shanghai silver main contract position is 2562195 lots, down 0.21% from the previous day and 5.74% from last week; silver T + D position is 2988126 lots, down 2.99% from last week. LBMA inventory is 27729 tons, down 0.32% from last week; Comex silver inventory is 11206 tons, down 1.62% from last week; Shanghai silver inventory is 307 tons, down 13.28% from last week [5]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can high - sell and low - buy with position management and stop - loss/take - profit [7]. - Price Data: International prices (NYMEX platinum active contract: $2178.60/ounce, up 0.60% from the previous day and 7.74% from last week; London platinum: $2138.00/ounce, down 0.33% from the previous day and up 7.17% from last week). Domestic prices (Platinum main contract in GZEX: 551.85 yuan/gram, up 5.36% from the previous day and 1.25% from last week; platinum in SGE: 545.09 yuan/gram, up 3.82% from the previous day and 0.20% from last week) [8]. - Position and Inventory Data: NYMEX platinum active contract position is 51840 lots, down 1.43% from the previous day and 0.93% from last week. NYMEX platinum total inventory is 19 tons, down 0.89% [8]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Similar to other precious metals, conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can high - sell and low - buy with position management and stop - loss/take - profit [10]. - Price Data: International prices (NYMEX palladium active contract: $1809.50/ounce, up 2.15% from the previous day and 5.85% from last week; London palladium: $1727.00/ounce, up 3.71% from the previous day and 3.91% from last week). Domestic price (Palladium main contract in GZEX: 438.45 yuan/gram, up 5.19% from the previous day and 0.07% from last week) [10]. - Position and Inventory Data: NYMEX palladium active contract position is 4266 lots, down 24.12% from the previous day and 57.68% from last week. NYMEX palladium total inventory is 6 tons, down 0.32% [10]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - US Economic Indicators: Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25%; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25%; reserve balance interest rate is 3.65%, down 0.25%. GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.50%, up 0.10%. Unemployment rate is 4.30%, down 0.10% [11][13]. - Inflation Indicators: CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, down 0.30%; core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, down 0.10%; PCE price index year - on - year is 2.90%, up 0.08%; core PCE price index year - on - year is 3.00%, up 0.17% [11]. - Other Indicators: Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.35%, down 0.04%; US dollar index is 97.64, down 0.09%; geopolitical risk index is 76.86, unchanged; VIX index is 19.86, up 6.60%; CRB commodity index is 312.67, up 0.85% [13]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate range in different meeting dates from March 2026 to December 2027 are presented in a table, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges [15].