浙商证券浙商早知道-20260303

Market Overview - On March 3, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.43%, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.54%, the STAR 50 dropped by 5.21%, the CSI 1000 declined by 3.95%, the ChiNext Index fell by 2.57%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.12% [4] - The best-performing sectors on March 3 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+6.75%), Coal (+1.76%), Transportation (+1.14%), Banking (+1.07%), and Utilities (+0.49%). The worst-performing sectors were Defense & Military Industry (-6.74%), Nonferrous Metals (-5.61%), Electronics (-5.3%), Computers (-4.94%), and Media (-4.29%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on March 3 was 31,576 billion, with a net inflow of 6.081 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Fixed Income and Credit Bonds - In January 2026, the banking sector showed a "stable corporate, weak household" characteristic in the credit sector, with performance slightly weak. The growth rate of household deposits fell to a historical low, indicating a marginal strengthening trend in the "deposit migration index," but deposits mainly remained in banks in the form of "non-bank deposits." The overall liability side of banks remained relatively ample, leading to a widening gap of 3.78 percentage points in loan-to-deposit growth rates, forcing banks to turn to the bond market for allocation, providing rigid buying support for interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds [5][6] Macroeconomic Outlook - The economic operation in the first two months of 2026 is expected to continue the structural characteristics of stable supply, recovering demand, moderate prices, and weak credit. The industrial production value added is expected to grow by approximately 5.0% year-on-year, while retail sales are projected to rebound to 5.1% year-on-year, although the real estate sector remains weak, constraining household consumption and investment. Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be around 2.0%, with manufacturing showing resilience and infrastructure likely to be supported by policy measures. External demand is expected to remain resilient, with export growth projected at 4.6% and import growth at 1.7%. CPI is expected to rise moderately to 0.7%, while PPI is expected to hover around -1.3%. Overall, steady growth policies are expected to support a "good start" in the first quarter, but the recovery slope will depend on alleviating real estate drag and sustaining internal demand [7][10]