轻工制造行业2025年业绩预告综述：2025年业绩预告表现平淡，家居用品子板块预盈率相对较高

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [27]. Core Insights - The light industry sector's performance forecast is subdued, with a pre-profit rate of 44%. As of February 13, 2026, 84 out of 168 A-share companies in the light manufacturing industry have released performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 50%, ranking fourth among eight major consumer sectors [1][9][10]. - The home goods sub-sector shows a higher pre-profit rate of 53%, leading among the light manufacturing sub-sectors. In contrast, the paper, packaging, and entertainment goods sub-sectors have pre-profit rates of 42%, 35%, and 33%, respectively [2][14][15]. - The overall performance of the light manufacturing sector is affected by a weak macro environment and sluggish consumer demand, with 19% of companies expecting a profit decrease in 2025, and 38% facing continuous losses for two consecutive years [1][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast Overview - The light manufacturing industry has a pre-profit rate of 44%, ranking seventh among consumer sectors. The proportion of companies expecting profit increases or slight increases is 11% and 2%, respectively, both lower than in 2024 [1][10][25]. Sub-sector Performance - The home goods sub-sector has a disclosure rate of 53%, while paper and packaging have 50% and 49%, respectively. The entertainment goods sub-sector has the lowest disclosure rate at 41% [2][14]. - In 2025, the paper sub-sector shows a mixed performance with one company expecting an increase, one slight increase, two decreases, one turnaround, four first losses, and three continuous losses [15]. The entertainment goods sub-sector has a 66% loss rate among disclosed companies, with significant increases in continuous losses compared to 2024 [15]. Investment Recommendations - For the paper sector, it is suggested to focus on leading companies with production capacity and cost advantages, as the downstream demand remains stable and pulp prices are easing [3][25]. - In the home and appliance sectors, the recovery in domestic demand driven by optimized real estate policies and government subsidies for replacing consumer goods is highlighted, along with the benefits from recovering overseas demand [3][25].