粕类日报：扰动因素增加，粕类宽幅震荡-20260303

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with limited room for further increase and decline. Domestic soybean meal is mainly bearish, while rapeseed meal is expected to be strong, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will narrow [6]. - The trading strategy suggests a bearish approach for single - side trading, narrowing the MRM09 spread for arbitrage, and using seagull put options [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - The US soybean market is running strongly due to optimistic export prospects, strong domestic demand, and reduced South American production. The domestic soybean meal market is in high - level shock, and the rapeseed meal market is rising. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal follow the single - side trend, while those of rapeseed meal fluctuate slightly [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The US soybean carry - over inventory remains at about 350 million bushels, with general export inspection data and a relatively loose supply - demand situation. In South America, some institutions have lowered Brazil's soybean yield, but the overall yield is still high. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, while Argentina's old - crop demand is strong, but the new - crop yield has decreased [4]. - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal supply is gradually recovering, but the market demand is average. As of February 27, the soybean inventory increased by 8.83% week - on - week and 3.61% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 14.85% week - on - week and 43.64% year - on - year. The domestic rapeseed meal demand is average, the supply is still at a low level, and the inventory is relatively high [5]. 3. Logical Analysis - US soybeans are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The domestic soybean meal is bearish, and the rapeseed meal is expected to be strong. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will narrow, and the inter - month spreads are expected to decline [6]. 4. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Bearish approach [7]. - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM09 spread [7]. - Options: Seagull put options [7]. 5. Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the pressing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from April to August, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and pressing profit [8].