主产区供应预期趋松，锡价大幅回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the long - term supply expectation of tin has relaxed, the short - term tightness in the ore end has not been fundamentally improved. The tin price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom and may still fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, if the resumption and new production of major tin - producing areas proceed smoothly, the supply - demand of tin may ease, but it is still expected to remain in a tight state, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the long term, the ore end is difficult to see significant growth, and with strong demand, the center of the tin price is expected to show an upward trend [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On March 3, 2026, the tin price had a significant correction. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 2.0% to 394,890 yuan/ton at the close. The main reasons were the expected loosening of supply in major producing areas and the weak overall market sentiment, which triggered the departure of long - position funds [2][3] - The Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Bureau set the 2026 tin production target at 65,860 tons, higher than the previous quota of 60,000 tons, improving the supply expectation. On February 27, Wa State in Myanmar accelerated the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas at low altitudes, and the subsequent ore output is expected to increase [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic ore end is still tight, restricting refined tin production. As of February 27, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore was 10,000 yuan/ton, and that for 40% grade was 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, the domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%, and the domestic tin smelter operating rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points [3] - Recently, the visible inventory of tin has accumulated. As of March 2, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,531 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,470 tons [3] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tight ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [4] - Strategy: Wait for the tin price to adjust in place, and then continue to focus on low - buying and long - position operations [4]