塑料期货月报-20260303

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Anliang Futures commodity research report on the plastic futures monthly report for March 2026 [1][4] - The core view is that in February, the polyethylene market had weak supply and demand, with a pattern of "continuing to decline before the Spring Festival, briefly rising after the festival and then falling back". In March, the supply side will enter a new structural adjustment cycle, the demand side support is expected to gradually appear, and the cost side uncertainty increases. The price will mainly operate in a range [6] Group 2: Supply Side 2.1 Supply and Production in February - In February, the domestic polyethylene market supply showed a pattern of total decline, utilization rate increase, and overall regional strengthening. The total output decreased to 290,586 tons, and the LLDPE output was 133,200 tons [8] - The polyethylene maintenance loss in February decreased by 35.36% to 275,300 tons, and the linear variety maintenance volume decreased by 9.48% to 79,650 tons [8] - The overall capacity utilization rate of polyethylene in February was 87.6007%, a 3.7655% increase. The capacity utilization rates of major domestic production areas all increased [9] 2.2 Inventory in February - At the end of February, the total inventory of PE production enterprises rose to 579,700 tons, a 256,700 - ton increase. The LLDPE production enterprise inventory was 252,400 tons, a 126,000 - ton increase [12] - The PE social inventory at the end of February was 597,800 tons, a 118,200 - ton increase. The LLDPE social inventory was 235,750 tons, a 42,430 - ton increase [13] 2.3 Import in February - At the end of February, the international LLDPE prices showed a pattern of widespread increase with differentiated amplitudes. The import cost in the Chinese market increased [16] - In February, China's polyethylene import volume was 1.041 million tons, a 79,000 - ton decrease. The average monthly import profit of each variety weakened [17][18] 2.4 Outlook for March - In March, there will be no new capacity put into production in China, and the number of new maintenance devices will increase compared to February, and the supply side will enter a new structural adjustment cycle [9] Group 3: Demand Side 3.1 February Situation - In February, the overall downstream enterprise start - up rate of polyethylene was 21.6%, a 18.26% decrease. The start - up rates of the agricultural film and packaging film industries decreased significantly [21] - At the end of February, the raw material inventories of major downstream industries of polyethylene decreased. The raw material inventory available days of agricultural film and packaging film enterprises decreased [22] - In February, the polyethylene downstream market was significantly affected by the Spring Festival, with seasonal weakening of demand. After the festival, the demand recovery was slow and the support for the market was limited [24] 3.2 Outlook - With the start of spring plowing and the gradual recovery of packaging and daily necessities consumption, the demand side support is expected to gradually appear [6][24][33] Group 4: Process Cost and Profit 4.1 Cost in February - In February, the oil - based polyethylene cost showed an oscillating upward trend, reaching 7,662.4286 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 267 - yuan/ton increase [26] - The coal - based polyethylene cost steadily recovered, reaching 6,510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 15 - yuan/ton increase [27] 4.2 Profit in February - In February, the profits of polyethylene production enterprises generally weakened. The oil - based enterprise loss increased to 1,029.5714 yuan/ton, and the coal - based enterprise profit decreased to 34.2857 yuan/ton [29] 4.3 Spread in February - In February, the spreads between polyethylene and related varieties narrowed significantly. The average spread of PE - PVC:05 contract was 1,796.14 yuan/ton, a 83.61 - yuan/ton decrease, and the average spread of PE - PP:05 contract was 84.43 yuan/ton, a 97.82 - yuan/ton decrease [30] Group 5: Summary - In March, the supply side will enter a new structural adjustment cycle, the demand side support is expected to gradually appear, and the cost side uncertainty increases. The price will mainly operate in a range, and the short - term fluctuations may be amplified by geopolitical events [33]