市场情绪走弱，锂价再度跌停

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate fundamentals are strong, with supply and demand in a tight balance. After today's limit - down, the spot market trading volume has increased, and the replenishment enthusiasm is high. However, the price is still influenced by market sentiment. The power terminal demand in January - February was below expectations, and whether it can recover remains to be seen. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - According to Flush data, today the lithium carbonate main contract hit the limit - down, closing at the limit - down price of 150,860 yuan/ton. The price decline is mainly due to weakening market sentiment and concerns about demand expectations. In January, the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 596,000, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 55.4%. The year - on - year decline was mainly concentrated in models under 200,000 yuan, which are the main force for sales volume in 2025. This has triggered market concerns about order cancellations by downstream enterprises due to the decline in demand in the second quarter. In addition, concerns about the impact of overseas geopolitics on demand have led to weak overall market sentiment, affecting the decline of lithium carbonate prices [3] Fundamental Situation - In March, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but the subsequent performance of the terminal remains to be observed. Since 2026, the supply has been relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production cuts, the overall supply is at a high level. At the same time, the demand is good. Downstream enterprises are active in stocking after the price correction, and the supply and demand are still in a tight balance, with a reduction in social inventory. After the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides have recovered. The strong demand performance in March and Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports have supported the market. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December was not optimistic, and it remains to be further verified in March and April, which is the key to affecting the supply - demand balance in the second quarter [4] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the lithium carbonate fundamentals are strong, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After today's limit - down, the spot market trading volume has increased, and the replenishment enthusiasm is high. However, the price is still influenced by market sentiment. The power terminal demand in January - February was below expectations, and whether it can recover remains to be seen. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]