聚水潭（06687）：首次覆盖报告：电商 ERP SaaS 领军，“一体两翼”驱动长期成长

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][19]. Core Insights - The company, as the largest e-commerce SaaS ERP provider in China, has established a broad ecosystem through its products and services, with steady revenue and profit growth. The integration of AI into e-commerce ERP opens up new application scenarios [2][10]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 11.33 billion, 14.02 billion, and 17.06 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.55%, 23.69%, and 21.73% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.80 billion, 3.60 billion, and 5.57 billion RMB, with EPS of 0.41, 0.82, and 1.28 RMB [10][12]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to grow from 6.97 billion RMB in 2024 to 17.06 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.73% [4][12]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from 623 million RMB in 2024 to 1.37 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a rising gross margin from 62.3% to 80.37% [4][12]. - The company’s net profit is projected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 12 million RMB, and further increasing to 557 million RMB by 2027 [4][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to address the pain points of e-commerce merchants operating across multiple platforms and stores, focusing on order, inventory, logistics, and finance management [13]. - The e-commerce SaaS market in China is expected to grow from 73 billion RMB in 2020 to 129 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.4%. The e-commerce SaaS ERP market is projected to grow from 16 billion RMB to 31 billion RMB in the same period, with a CAGR of 18.9% [13]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, implementing a "one body, two wings" strategy to stabilize its domestic market while pursuing cross-border and international growth opportunities [13]. Valuation - The report employs both PS and PE valuation methods, with a target price set at 28.56 HKD based on a cautious approach to the lower end of the valuation range [15][19]. - The PS valuation method suggests a reasonable market value of 124.58 billion HKD, while the PE valuation method indicates a market value of 131.94 billion HKD, leading to a target price of 30.24 HKD [17][19].