棉花、棉纱日报-20260303

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cotton fundamentals have some support, and it is advisable to consider building long positions on dips. The US cotton is expected to move in a range in the short - term, while the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is advisable to build long positions on dips rather than chase the highs. For arbitrage and options, the recommendation is to wait and see [7][8][9] Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton (CF) and cotton yarn (CY) contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 15640 with a price increase of 10, and the trading volume decreased by 1164 to 3,324 lots [2] - Spot Market: The prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn spot products are provided. For instance, the CCIndex3128B was 16591 yuan/ton with a decrease of 40, and the CY IndexC32S was 21920 with no change [2] - Spreads: Different types of spreads are listed, including cotton and cotton - yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads. The 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 385 with a decrease of 20 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Inventory in Zhangjiagang: As of March 2, 2026, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 4.70 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. The inventory increased significantly due to more in - bound and less out - bound shipments before the Spring Festival, mainly with Brazilian cotton [5] - US Cotton Inspection: As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 3.0387 billion tons, accounting for 100.3% of the annual US cotton production forecast, a year - on - year decrease of 4%. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 - 3.07 billion tons [6] - CFTC Data: As of February 24, 2026, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 20.66% (a week - on - week increase of 3.2 percentage points) [6] Trading Logic - The global cotton production has decreased by 3% according to the previous USDA annual report. The overall supply is expected to be 2525, while consumption is 2614, showing a relatively tight balance. If consumption continues to increase, a tight - balance situation may occur [7] Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the US cotton will move in a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton shows strong technical performance. It is advisable to build long positions on dips and not chase the highs [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Cotton Yarn Market: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and downstream orders are unclear. The inventory has decreased, and manufacturers are cautious and waiting [12] - Cotton Grey Cloth Market: The overall trading atmosphere of all - cotton grey cloth is still insufficient, with few new orders for weavers. Some thin fabric re - orders have been confirmed, while others have not improved much [12] Third Part: Options - Option Contract Data: The data of several cotton option contracts are presented, including the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators. For example, the CF605C14600.CZC contract closed at 334.00, with a price change rate of - 16.9% and an implied volatility of 13.3% [14] - Volatility: The 60 - day HV of cotton is 9.2812, with a slight increase compared to the previous day [14] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract's open interest of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased. The recommendation is to wait and see [15][16] Fourth Part: Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price difference, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads [17][21][26]