地缘战火“点燃”油价

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The core logic of the crude oil market revolves around the supply hard gap caused by the transportation bottleneck triggered by the geopolitical situation. Geopolitical risks will continuously support crude oil prices until the military confrontation between the US, Israel and Iran ends and the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil Price Surge and Geopolitical Trigger - On Monday, oil futures opened higher. The Brent crude oil price soared nearly 13% to $82 per barrel and then had an 8% increase. The domestic SC crude oil futures closed at the daily limit. The direct cause was the military conflict between the US, Israel and Iran over the weekend after the Israel - Iran conflict in June 2025 [3]. Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure - Iran's announcement to ban ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp rise in market panic about the interruption of crude oil supply from Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade, has seen shipping come to a halt, with about 2000000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate passing through it in 2025 [4]. Supply Dilemma - Iran has rich oil and gas resources. In 2025, its crude oil production was about 3300000 barrels per day, accounting for 3% of global supply, and exports were 1500000 - 1800000 barrels per day, accounting for 1.4% - 1.6%. Although Iran's export share is not high, its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. OPEC +'s planned production increase and OPEC's idle capacity are ineffective due to the blocked transportation channels [5]. Future Oil Price Trends - If the Strait of Hormuz is only "temporarily interrupted" (a few days to a week), the Brent oil price will fluctuate in the range of $76 - $82 per barrel. If the blockade is extended, the market logic will shift from "actual interruption" to "deteriorating expectations", and the Brent oil price may break through $90 per barrel or higher [7].