Orient Securities·2026-03-03 15:24Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Views - Geely's export sales continue to grow, and the brand's high-end positioning is gradually showing results [2] - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth, with forecasts of 17.04 billion, 20.60 billion, and 24.32 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a target price of 23.54 HKD [3] - The report highlights the strong competitive position of Geely's products, as evidenced by positive sales growth despite a challenging market environment [10] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 179.20 billion, 240.19 billion, 319.44 billion, 387.36 billion, and 448.69 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][11] - Operating profit is projected to increase significantly, with figures of 3.81 billion, 7.64 billion, 16.06 billion, 19.62 billion, and 23.17 billion RMB for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5][11] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 5.31 billion RMB in 2023A to 24.32 billion RMB in 2027E, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.49 RMB in 2023A to 2.23 RMB in 2027E [5][11] Sales and Market Position - In February 2026, Geely's total sales reached 206,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with cumulative sales for January and February at 476,300 units, up 1.0% year-on-year [10] - Geely's export volume in February was 60,900 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 138.3%, indicating successful overseas expansion [10] - The high-end brands, Zeekr and Lynk & Co, showed strong sales growth, with Zeekr's sales in February increasing by 70.0% year-on-year [10]