玖龙纸业（02689）：FY2026H1业绩点评：浆纸一体化效果显著，资本开支拐点出现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in its financial performance for FY2026H1, with revenue reaching 37.221 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit of 2.212 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 225.1% [9] - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown notable benefits, with the company achieving a pulp production of 2.3 million tons in FY2026H1, a year-on-year increase of 77% [9] - The company is expected to see further growth in pulp production, reaching 2.5 million tons in FY2026H2, which will significantly contribute to profitability [9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: FY2024 at 59.496 billion RMB, FY2025 at 63.241 billion RMB, FY2026E at 73.848 billion RMB, FY2027E at 80.604 billion RMB, and FY2028E at 85.725 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 5%, 6%, 17%, 9%, and 6% [8] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 0.751 billion RMB for FY2024, 1.767 billion RMB for FY2025, 3.789 billion RMB for FY2026E, 4.671 billion RMB for FY2027E, and 5.702 billion RMB for FY2028E, with growth rates of 131%, 135%, 114%, 23%, and 22% respectively [8] - The earnings per share are projected to be 0.16 RMB for FY2024, 0.38 RMB for FY2025, 0.81 RMB for FY2026E, 1.00 RMB for FY2027E, and 1.22 RMB for FY2028E [8] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a production capacity exceeding 20 million tons, which provides significant scale advantages and upward elasticity in the market [10] - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the gradual recovery in downstream demand and the easing of import paper impacts, with a focus on optimizing product structure and costs through integrated operations [10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position due to its raw material advantages and management capabilities, which will facilitate ongoing market consolidation [10]