GF SECURITIES·2026-03-03 15:38Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (09961.HK) with a current price of 51.48 USD / 391.00 HKD and a fair value of 66.48 USD / 519.98 HKD [8] Core Insights - Trip.com Group's international business continues to show high growth, with a strong performance in Q4 2025, achieving a net operating revenue of 15.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The adjusted net profit was 3.5 billion RMB, up 15% year-on-year [8] - The company's core OTA platform GMV reached approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in 2025, with international OTA platform bookings growing by about 60% [8] - The report highlights the rapid growth of inbound tourism, with the company serving around 20 million inbound travelers in 2025, and emphasizes the potential of markets in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East [8] Financial Forecast - The forecast for Trip.com Group's main revenue from 2024 to 2028 is as follows: - 2024: 53,294 million RMB - 2025: 62,409 million RMB (growth rate: 19.7%) - 2026: 71,522 million RMB (growth rate: 17.1%) - 2027: 81,541 million RMB (growth rate: 14.6%) - 2028: 92,694 million RMB (growth rate: 14.0%) [2] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be: - 2026: 20,094 million RMB (down 36.9% year-on-year) - 2027: 22,986 million RMB (up 14.4% year-on-year) - 2028: 25,993 million RMB (up 13.1% year-on-year) [2] Business Segment Analysis - Revenue from accommodation bookings in Q4 2025 was 6.3 billion RMB, up 21% year-on-year, driven by international and outbound demand. Transportation ticketing revenue was 5.4 billion RMB, up 12% year-on-year, while vacation revenue was 1.1 billion RMB, also up 21% year-on-year [8] - The contribution of international business to total revenue and bookings has increased to approximately 40% in 2025, up from 35% in 2024 [8] Market Performance - The report notes that Trip.com Group's global strategy has entered a harvest phase in 2025, with significant growth in inbound tourism and a focus on expanding in the Asia-Pacific region and other emerging markets [8]