地缘问题持续扰动市场，铂钯偏强震荡

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - On March 2, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.06% to 626.5 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 1.00% to 463.65 yuan/gram [1] - Due to continuous geopolitical issues, platinum prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The US tariff issue and the US - Iran situation are disturbing the precious metals market. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit will benefit the price of platinum. The follow - up development of the conflict will determine the short - term upward elasticity of platinum and palladium [2] - The palladium spot market remains in short supply, providing strong support at the bottom. Supply uncertainties continue, and although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, the short - term shortage will support prices. Geopolitical risks may increase short - term volatility [3] - Both platinum and palladium are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium and long term, supported by the shortage of spot and the weakening of the US dollar credit [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: The US tariff issue and the US - Iran situation are continuously disturbing the precious metals market. Trump's attitude towards tariffs may lead to a further contraction of the US dollar credit in the long - term. The escalation of the US - Iran situation has increased market risk - aversion, boosting precious metal prices in the short - term. The US is in a long - term interest - rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit is beneficial to the long - term price elasticity of platinum [2] - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. With fundamental resilience and weakening US dollar credit, a medium - to long - term upward - oscillating trend is expected [2] Palladium - Main Logic: Supply uncertainties continue. The US has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is also considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The tight spot market supports prices. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term shortages support prices, and geopolitical risks may increase short - term volatility [3] - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. Supported by short - term shortages and weakening US dollar credit, a medium - to long - term upward - oscillating trend is expected [3] Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2458.25, +1.60%), the Commodity 20 Index (2824.14, +1.76%), and the Industrial Products Index (2331.34, +1.48%) [48] Plate Index - For the non - ferrous metals index on March 2, 2026, the closing value is 2732.94, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 1.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.75% [50]