晨报：原油带动通胀预期上?，?类资产?部收跌-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing differentiation, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. The overall situation is one of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising". In the US, consumer confidence in February showed consumption resilience, restricting the space for "recession trading". Factory orders in December declined in total but increased after excluding transportation, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Meanwhile, policy discussions around certain candidates are fermenting, and the Middle - East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and risk - aversion premiums [1]. - In China, policy coordination is strengthening, high - frequency consumption data is positive, and the real - estate market is showing marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, with a stable liquidity environment beneficial for short - term interest rates. Exports are stable, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active, which may support domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. The real - estate market is still at a low level, but there are signs of a slight rebound in listing prices in first - and second - tier cities, and the signal of policy optimization is strengthening. The increase in special bond quotas is accompanied by a change in investment structure, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, a structural approach is still recommended, but it is necessary to distinguish whether the conflict will spill over. If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and Strait passage are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and impacts global risk appetite, risk assets will be temporarily affected, with equities and industrial metals under pressure, while the risk - aversion premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, government bonds are generally neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities should focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black chain should be under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices to the chemical chain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - Consumer confidence: In February, the US Conference Board's consumer confidence rebounded, indicating that consumption resilience remains, restricting the space for "recession trading" [1]. - Industrial orders: In December, the total factory orders declined, but after excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy and geopolitical risks: Policy discussions around certain candidates are fermenting, affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. The Middle - East situation is heating up due to the US's strengthened stance on Iran and Israeli air strikes on Iran, pushing up energy and risk - aversion premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - Policy and liquidity: Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, creating a stable liquidity environment that is beneficial for short - term interest rates [1]. - Consumption and exports: Exports are stable. Consumption during the Spring Festival was active, and the social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, which can support domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities [1]. - Real - estate market: Real - estate transactions are still at a low level, but listing prices in first - and second - tier cities have slightly rebounded, and the signal of policy optimization is strengthening. However, the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed [1]. - Infrastructure: The special bond quota has been increased, but the investment structure has changed. The physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [1]. Asset Views - General principle: Asset allocation should be based on a structural approach, and it is necessary to distinguish whether the conflict will spill over [1]. - Asset allocation suggestions: Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, government bonds are generally neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities should focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black chain should be under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices to the chemical chain [1]. Market Performance of Various Sectors (Based on Tables) Financial Market - Stock index futures: Entered the position adjustment observation period, with concerns about the inflow of incremental funds and the credit risk of AI enterprises. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Stock index options: The options market is trading with the expectation of a medium - to long - term slow - rise. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Government bond futures: Institutions are cautious before the "Two Sessions", and the bond market has declined. The implementation of monetary policy should be monitored, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with fluctuations increasing. Geopolitical conflicts are driving up the risk - aversion premium of gold, and the delivery pressure of silver in March has eased [4]. Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle - East situation, and the opening of spot market cabins [4]. Black Building Materials - Steel products: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig - iron production [4]. - Iron ore: Shipments remain high, and arrivals have slightly decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic pig - iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [4]. - Other products: Coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to have volatile short - term trends. Different factors such as steel mill production, raw material costs, and inventory replenishment should be monitored [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals: Due to the US - Iran military conflict, there are concerns about supply disruptions. Most non - ferrous metals are expected to have a volatile and slightly upward short - term trend, but different factors such as supply disruptions, policy changes, and demand recovery should be considered for each metal [4]. - Other products: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products: Affected by the US - Iran situation, the prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Different factors such as OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and raw material prices should be considered for each product [5]. - Other products: Asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and some other products also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [5]. Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the prices of most oil - price - sensitive agricultural products are expected to be volatile. Different factors such as trade policies, weather conditions, and production and demand should be considered for each product [5]. - Other products: Some products such as paper pulp, double - gum paper, and logs also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [6].