地缘扰动持续，油脂油料波动偏大

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View Geopolitical disturbances continue to affect the agricultural market, leading to significant fluctuations in the prices of various agricultural products. The market is characterized by a mix of long and short factors, with notable impacts from geopolitical events, policies, and supply - demand dynamics. Different agricultural products show diverse trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to show a sideways - to - upward trend. Although the supply of oilseeds is relatively sufficient, short - term positive sentiment from the US biodiesel policy is countered by factors such as weakening palm oil exports and a slowdown in the biodiesel policy. A strategy of buying at stage - low prices is recommended [5][6]. - Market Analysis: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to high - level volatility in crude oil prices. US soybean oil is supported by rising crude oil prices and positive biodiesel policy expectations but faces potential high - level adjustments. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in February due to rain and floods, and exports weakened. However, production is expected to recover in March, limiting the rebound space. China has reduced the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to become more abundant, with prices following the overall oil trend [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - Outlook: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move sideways. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, with both supply and demand weak. The domestic market follows external market fluctuations and faces short - term adjustment pressure [7]. - Market Analysis: Internationally, geopolitical conflicts and biofuel policies have pushed up US soybean prices, and the net long position of US soybean funds has reached the highest level in the same period since 2019. Domestically, the spot market is weak, and the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, suppressing the rebound of the futures market. The inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the downstream demand lacks growth momentum [7]. 3.3. Corn - Outlook: Corn is expected to move sideways - to - upward. In the short term, after the Lantern Festival and with the expected warming of the weather, wet corn is expected to be gradually sold, and the increase in spot prices may narrow. In the medium term, based on the tight annual balance sheet, corn is generally bullish [10]. - Market Analysis: The domestic corn market is strong, supported by limited remaining grain at the grassroots level, farmers' reluctance to sell, and downstream replenishment demand. After the Spring Festival, snow in some areas has reduced the pressure on grain storage, and wet corn is expected to be sold gradually. Downstream enterprises have a demand for replenishment, and the price has increased slightly. However, imported grains may suppress the price in the southern sales area [10]. 3.4. Pigs - Outlook: Pigs are expected to move sideways - to - downward. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, and the supply of pigs remains excessive. In the long term, if the production capacity reduction in the second half of 2025 is realized, the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [12]. - Market Analysis: The government plans to purchase 10,000 tons of pork on March 4. In the short term, some second - fattening has entered the market. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is still abundant. In the long term, the reduction in sow inventory in the second half of 2025 may lead to a reduction in the supply pressure in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - Outlook: The market is expected to move sideways. The fundamental variables are limited, and the market sentiment is weak in the short term, but the downward adjustment range is expected to be limited [14]. - Market Analysis: The price of natural rubber rose rapidly and then fell sharply. Geopolitical events in the Middle East have little impact on supply but negatively affect downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weak, and there are few positive fundamental factors. However, due to the approaching low - production season and stable downstream demand, the price is likely to be more likely to rise than fall [14]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - Outlook: The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, mainly following the sector sentiment [15]. - Market Analysis: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, boosting the synthetic rubber market. The spot price of butadiene has also risen, providing upward momentum. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [15]. 3.7. Cotton - Outlook: Cotton is expected to move sideways - to - upward. In the long - term, the price is expected to rise, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, after the Spring Festival, the positive factors have been digested, and there is a lack of new driving forces, so the price is in a sideways adjustment. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, and the expected reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 will drive up the price. However, the increase in imported yarn may affect the final inventory. The international market is currently loose but is expected to tighten in the next season [16]. 3.8. Sugar - Outlook: Sugar is expected to move sideways - to - downward. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, affected by the Middle East conflict, the price may have a small - scale rebound [18]. - Market Analysis: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Although there are some positive factors, it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus pattern. The Middle East conflict has pushed up the crude oil price, which may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and then affect the sugar supply [18]. 3.9. Pulp - Outlook: Pulp is expected to move sideways. The expectation of improved demand in the future is positive, but the flat supply quotation is negative, and the price will remain in a wide - range sideways movement [20]. - Market Analysis: The pulp futures market is weak due to the weak performance of the financial market. The demand in the industrial chain is still in the recovery stage, and the post - festival replenishment momentum is average. However, the demand is expected to improve seasonally in the future. The supply quotation has both positive and negative factors, and the exchange - rate appreciation is negative for the domestic price [20]. 3.10. Double - Glued Paper - Outlook: Double - glued paper is expected to move sideways. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [22]. - Market Analysis: The spot market of double - glued paper is in a wait - and - see state, and some paper mills are calling for price increases, but the demand is weak. In March and April, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise. In May, due to the influence of publishing tenders and weak social orders, the price may fall [22]. 3.11. Logs - Outlook: Logs are expected to move sideways. In the short term, the spot price increase provides strong support, but there is a lack of upward driving force. In the medium term, the market may face inventory pressure after the peak season [23]. - Market Analysis: The spot price of logs has increased due to low inventory in Shandong and the release of post - festival demand. The overseas market price has bottomed out and stabilized, and the valuation has increased. However, after the peak season in the first - quarter mid - term, the inventory may increase again, and the price will face pressure [23]. 3.12. Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed an upward trend. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and the industrial products index, also increased. The agricultural product index increased by 0.32% on the day, 0.42% in the past 5 days, 0.17% in the past month, and 1.57% since the beginning of the year [184][186].