需求预期调整，资金撤离引发碳酸锂大跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of demand expectations and the withdrawal of funds have led to a sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices. In the short - to - medium term, investors are re - evaluating the impact of the decline in electric vehicle sales on battery consumption, and the panic withdrawal of funds has caused a sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices against the backdrop of a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the growth stage, but the demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price Information: As of March 3, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory Data: As of last week, the domestic inventory was 462,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. Among them, the market inventory was 186,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, and the factory inventory was 276,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [7]. - Production Data: In February, the industrial silicon production was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%. The cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - Export Data: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - Main Logic: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The start - up of large northwest factories has increased this week, and it is expected to continue to recover. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. In the long - term, there is still pressure of over - supply [7]. - Outlook: In the medium - to - long - term, the silicon price is still under pressure. Currently, the market sentiment is volatile, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price Information: On March 3, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 54.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [7][8]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: On March 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9510 lots, with no change from the previous day [8]. - Import and Export Data: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons. The import volume in December was about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [8]. - Main Logic: As the dry season approaches, the polysilicon production in the southwest is gradually reducing, and the current production is at a low level. The demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing, which puts pressure on the price. However, the supply is expected to continue to contract, and the long - term supply - demand may tighten, so the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. - Outlook: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price, but considering the continued supply contraction, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Price and Position Data: On March 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 12.3% to 150,860 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position of the lithium carbonate contract decreased by 64,550 lots to 648,060 lots [11]. - Spot Price Data: On March 3, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 162,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,400 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the evening market price was 159,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 159,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,600 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the evening price was 159,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 441 lots to 37,755 lots [11]. - Main Logic: In March, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but the subsequent performance of the terminal needs to be observed. Since 2026, the supply has been relatively strong, and the demand has also been good. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the social inventory has decreased. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand have recovered. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have boosted the market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February are not optimistic, and it remains to be verified in March and April, which is the key to the supply - demand balance in the second quarter. Before that, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - Outlook: In the short - term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index) all showed an upward trend on March 3, 2026. The comprehensive index increased by 1.00%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.83%, and the industrial product index increased by 1.43% [49]. - New Energy Commodity Index: On March 3, 2026, the new energy commodity index was 519.18, with a daily decline of 5.21%, a decline of 5.36% in the past 5 days, a decline of 9.30% in the past month, and an increase of 1.86% since the beginning of the year [51].