能源化工日报 2026-03-04-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short - term, the supply gap from Iran remains. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout approach is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [1][2]. - For methanol, it has fully incorporated the current geopolitical premium. With no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, despite the positive downstream demand expectations, the supply - demand situation is in a state of both supply and demand being strong. The marginal influence is mostly about quotas, and there is little positive impact on quotas. The fundamentals of urea are expected to turn negative, so it is advisable to short at high prices [6][7]. - For rubber, the market is driven by macro and capital factors. The future trend faces a crucial test. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [9][12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level. The supply reduction is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand has not fully recovered from the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. The cancellation of export tax rebates has spurred short - term export rush, which is the only short - term fundamental support. The overall situation is a domestic supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices of both have risen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. Wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [16][17]. - For polyethylene, due to geopolitical conflicts, the spot and futures prices have increased. The PE valuation has room to decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [19][20]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply pressure will be relieved in the first half of 2026 with no new capacity plans. The downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound. In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and in the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [21][23]. - For p - xylene (PX), the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many maintenance plans with a low overall load. In the short - term, PX will maintain a stockpiling pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil [25][26]. - For PTA, as the maintenance expectations decline, it is difficult for PTA to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, and there is room for valuation increase in the mid - term. It is recommended to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices [28][29]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high. Although the import is expected to decline in March, the port stockpiling pressure is still large. In the mid - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year. With the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import reduction and de - stocking. It is advisable to pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices [30][31]. 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude oil futures rose 61.30 yuan/barrel, or 12.00%, to 572.30 yuan/barrel. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed a decrease in crude oil arrival inventory by 1.43 million barrels to 199.82 million barrels, a decrease in gasoline commercial inventory by 0.42 million barrels to 94.58 million barrels, an increase in diesel commercial inventory by 9.22 million barrels to 111.99 million barrels, and an increase in total refined oil commercial inventory by 8.80 million barrels to 206.58 million barrels [1]. - Strategy View: Mid - term layout is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical tensions to eliminate tail risks [2]. Methanol - Market Information: The main contract changed by 254.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2557 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 351 yuan [4]. - Strategy View: Take profits at high prices as it has fully incorporated the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4]. Urea - Market Information: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and Shanxi changed by 30 yuan/ton; in Hebei and Hubei by 20 yuan/ton; and in the Northeast remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at 21 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 2 yuan/ton, reported at 1819 yuan/ton [6]. - Strategy View: Short at high prices as the fundamentals are expected to turn negative [7]. Rubber - Market Information: The stock market and commodities generally declined, and rubber tumbled. The future trend faces a crucial test. The long side believes in limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved Chinese demand expectations; the short side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - season demand. As of February 26, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 32.30%, and that of semi - steel tires was 38.35%. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, and as of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [9][10]. - Strategy View: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short the RU2609 [12]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC05 contract rose 71 yuan to 4939 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (+50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 259 (- 21) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 121 (+11) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.1%, with the calcium - carbide method at 81.7% (down 0.3% month - on - month) and the ethylene method at 83.2% (up 0.7% month - on - month). The overall downstream operating rate was 17.1% (up 17.1% month - on - month). The factory inventory was 50.4 million tons (- 0.1), and the social inventory was 135.3 million tons (+1) [14]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 6620 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 6761 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 141 yuan/ton, narrowing by 70 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 8150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the active contract closing price was 8081 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton. The basis was 69 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 158 yuan/ton, up 17.63 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 218.3 yuan/ton, down 58.6 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.24%, up 3.16%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The three - S weighted operating rate was 30.45%, up 2.72%, the PS operating rate was 49.40% (down 0.30%), the EPS operating rate was 12.18% (up 12.18%), and the ABS operating rate was 70.70% (up 1.80%) [16]. - Strategy View: Wait for the non - integrated profit of styrene to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities [17]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The main contract closing price was 7200 yuan/ton, up 209 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7075 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The basis was - 125 yuan/ton, strengthening by 66 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 86.88%, down 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 57.97 million tons, an increase of 23.60 million tons, and the trader inventory was 4.69 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 18.22%, down 1.58%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 17 yuan/ton, widening by 97 yuan/ton [19]. - Strategy View: The supply pressure has been relieved, and the demand side is expected to recover seasonally [20]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The main contract closing price was 7223 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton. The basis was - 98 yuan/ton, strengthening by 85 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.91%, up 0.26%. The production enterprise inventory was 73.99 million tons, an increase of 34.87 million tons, the trader inventory was 24.97 million tons, an increase of 7.3 million tons, and the port inventory was 8.86 million tons, an increase of 1.57 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, up 8.49%. The LL - PP spread was - 23 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton, and the PP5 - 9 spread was 54 yuan/ton, widening by 76 yuan/ton [21][22]. - Strategy View: Go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices as the supply pressure is relieved and the downstream start - up rate has a strong seasonal rebound [23]. PX - Market Information: The PX05 contract rose 148 yuan to 7984 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 20 US dollars to 1019 US dollars. The basis was 130 yuan (- 6), and the 5 - 7 spread was 50 yuan (+16). The Chinese PX load was 92.4% (up 0.4%), and the Asian load was 84.9% (up 1.2%). A 2.5 - million - tonne unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and Jinling Petrochemical's maintenance plan was postponed, while an overseas plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of December was 465 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons month - on - month. The PXN was 295 US dollars (- 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 143 US dollars (- 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 100 US dollars (- 14) [25]. - Strategy View: Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long following crude oil as it will gradually enter a de - stocking cycle [26]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA05 contract rose 302 yuan to 5552 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 220 yuan to 5375 yuan. The basis was - 55 yuan (+5), and the 5 - 9 spread was 14 yuan (+40). The PTA load was 76.6% (up 1.8%). The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). On February 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 259.7 million tons, an increase of 9.5 million tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 131 yuan to 145 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 12 yuan to 412 yuan [28]. - Strategy View: Follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices in the mid - term as it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle and there is room for valuation increase [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG05 contract rose 100 yuan to 4025 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 141 yuan to 3894 yuan. The basis was - 56 yuan (+13), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan (+59). The ethylene glycol load was 79% (up 2%), with the syngas - based production at 84% (up 4.1%) and the ethylene - based production at 76.2% (up 0.8%). Some domestic and overseas plants had changes in their operating status. The downstream load was 79.5% (up 1.9%). The import arrival forecast was 10.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 2 was 0.37 million tons. The port inventory was 100.2 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1451 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 832 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was - 273 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 750 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price rebounded to 670 yuan [30]. - Strategy View: Pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low prices due to the tense Iran situation and potential de - stocking [31].