观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260304

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - Strongly Bullish (2): LLDPE, PP, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [86][129] - Bullish (1): gold, aluminum, synthetic rubber, toluene - p - xylene, PTA, MEG, benzene, LPG, propylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, cotton [5][23][82][75][156][122][148][179] - Neutral (0): silver, copper, lead, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, ferromanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, log, pulp, glass, urea, soda ash, PVC, palm oil, soybean oil, soybeans, corn, sugar, eggs, peanuts [5][8][14][32][40][45][48][51][56][60][64][66][90][97][108][116][126][159][166][170][174][186][194] - Bearish (-1): zinc, tin, platinum, palladium, rubber, live pigs [11][17][25][76][189] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of many commodities, including energy - related products and industrial raw materials. The supply and demand relationship of each commodity is also an important factor affecting prices, and changes in production, inventory, and consumption all play a role in price trends. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have led to a rise in gold prices. The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90, with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98, with a night - session increase of 1.31% [5]. - Silver: In a volatile pattern. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019, with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00, with a night - session increase of 6.95% [5]. - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum is weak due to the spread of panic sentiment, and palladium is hovering at a low level. The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 570.30, with a decline of 8.97%, and the closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 433.90, with a decline of 6.42% [25]. Base Metals - Copper: The sharp rise of the US dollar has put pressure on copper prices. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,100, with a daily decline of 1.69%, and the night - session closing price was 101,330, with a night - session decline of 0.75% [8]. - Zinc: Follows macro - level fluctuations. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,370, with a daily decline of 1.93% [11]. - Lead: The decrease in domestic inventory limits the decline of lead prices. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,840, with a daily decline of 0.33% [14]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - level sentiment. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 394,890, with a daily decline of 12.00%, and the night - session closing price was 387,840, with a night - session decline of 8.31% [17]. - Aluminum: Supply concerns are intensifying. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,905, with a decline of 590 [21]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, the reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, and in March, attention should be paid to its speculative nature. For stainless steel, the contradiction at the ore end is increasing marginally, and the cost support center is moving up [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Related: Geopolitical conflicts have led to an increase in oil prices, which in turn affects the prices of related products. For example, fuel oil prices continue to rise, and low - sulfur fuel oil has risen significantly [129]. - PTA, MEG, and Toluene - p - xylene: It is recommended to reduce long positions and exit positive spreads. PX prices rose on March 3, and the 5 - 9 spread in the derivatives market also strengthened [69][71]. - Rubber: In a weakly volatile pattern. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, and the demand side dragged down the rubber price [76]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price center is moving up. The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (04 contract) was 13,530, with an increase of 65 [80]. - LLDPE and PP: For LLDPE, the risk of crude oil has increased, and the expectation of upstream supply contraction has strengthened. For PP, the C3 raw material remains strong, and the reduction of PDH device capacity continues [83]. - Caustic Soda: In a strongly volatile pattern. The interruption of caustic soda exports in the Middle East has led to an increase in short - term hoarding demand [87]. - Methanol: In a strong upward trend. The spot price index of methanol has risen, and the futures price has also increased significantly [101]. - Urea: In a short - term volatile pattern. The supply side has a high operating rate, and the price is restricted by policies [108]. - Benzene and Styrene: In a strongly volatile pattern. The price of benzene has risen, and styrene is also expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [111][155]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has changed little. The supply of soda ash enterprises remains high, and downstream demand is not strong [114]. - LPG and Propylene: Affected by geopolitical factors, they are strongly volatile. The closing price of the LPG 2604 contract was 5,126, with a daily increase of 6.93% [118]. - PVC: In a range - bound pattern. Although the cost of ethylene - based PVC has increased, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is in a "weak recovery" state [126]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil has limited fundamental contradictions, and attention should be paid to the impact of oil prices. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure [158]. - Soybean Meal and Soybeans: Overnight, US soybeans closed higher, and soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate. For soybeans, attention should be paid to the policy sentiment of the Two Sessions, and the market may rebound and fluctuate [166]. - Corn: In a volatile pattern. The price of corn has little change, and the market is relatively stable [169]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities. The global sugar supply and demand situation has changed, and the domestic sugar production and consumption are also in a state of change [174]. - Cotton: Waiting for new driving factors. The spot trading of cotton has improved, but the downstream demand has not fully recovered [179]. - Eggs: In a volatile pattern. The price of eggs has little change, and the market is relatively stable [186]. - Live Pigs: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weak trend continues. The spot price of live pigs has declined, and the futures price also shows a downward trend [189]. - Peanuts: In a volatile pattern. The price of peanuts has little change, and the market trading is relatively light [194]. Others - Iron Ore: The expectation of steel exports has weakened, and the price of iron ore is under pressure. The closing price of the I2605 contract was 753.5, with a decline of 1.0, and a decline rate of 0.13% [48]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In a volatile pattern. The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,074, with an increase of 2, and an increase rate of 0.07%, and the closing price of the HC2605 contract was 3,219, with a decline of 1, and a decline rate of - 0.03% [51]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: In a strongly volatile pattern, with a game between funds and reality [55][56]. - Coke and Coking Coal: In a strongly volatile pattern. The closing price of the JM2605 contract was 1,127, with an increase of 33, and an increase rate of 3.0%, and the closing price of the J2605 contract was 1,694, with an increase of 42, and an increase rate of 2.5% [60]. - Steam Coal: There is insufficient support for price increases, and the price fluctuates in a narrow range in the short term [64]. - Log: In a small - scale volatile pattern, with a game between expectations and reality [66]. - Shipping Index (European Line): It is recommended to reduce positive spreads opportunistically. The futures price of the shipping index (European line) has risen, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical events on the shipping market [131].