Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market declined significantly yesterday, with weakening prices of finished steel products. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to concerns about crude oil supply, which has a certain boosting effect on the overall commodity valuation. The fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations, and in the short term, inventory digestion and demand verification are the core contradictions. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [9][16]. Summary by Directory Steel Products 1. Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3074 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.228%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 9328 tons, with no change from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.8819 million lots, a decrease of 21,925 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3190 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day (0%). The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 432,798 tons, an increase of 4410 tons. The open interest of the main contract was 1.4519 million lots, a decrease of 7712 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [2]. 2. Strategy Views - The hot - rolled coil production is basically the same as before the holiday, and the apparent demand has recovered rapidly after the holiday, but the inventory is still in a relatively high range in the past five years. The key is to focus on the inventory reduction rhythm and sustainability. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the production and sales recovery rhythm not fully restored, and the inventory accumulation speed is relatively fast, but it is still within a controllable range. Overall, the current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations, and in the short term, it is mainly about inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [3]. Iron Ore 1. Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 753.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the open interest changed by - 9866 lots to 532,900 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 945,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 754 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.57 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.82% [5]. 2. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. The shipments from Australia decreased, while those from Brazil continued to increase, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The near - term arrivals continued to decline. In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron production increased to 2.3328 million tons. Before the Spring Festival, some blast furnaces resumed production as planned, and most of the blast furnace overhauls started in late February. The profitability of steel mills increased slightly. During the important meeting, pig iron production is expected to be briefly affected. In terms of inventory, port inventories started to accumulate again, and the inventories of steel mills decreased significantly during the holiday, falling to a low level. Overall, after the end of the weather - related impact, overseas supply will recover, and high inventories will suppress price increases. Although the demand for pig iron production has recovered well, prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [6]. Ferroalloys 1. Market Quotes - On March 3, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon (SM605) continued to rebound, closing up 0.59% at 6118 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 ferromanganese silicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 78 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.38% at 5786 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 264 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Strategy Views - Last week, the rise of ferroalloys was mainly driven by market speculation due to rumors of rising power costs in South Africa and the imposition of ecological export tariffs on manganese ore (the ecological export tariff rumor was later refuted), as well as market expectations and speculation related to energy consumption monitoring, energy - consumption dual control, and "anti - involution" rumors around the "Two Sessions" under the background of the central economic work conference in December last year re - emphasizing "dual carbon". - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term. - In terms of the fundamentals of the varieties themselves, the supply - demand pattern of ferromanganese silicon is still not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventories, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to factory overhauls and production conversions. The key factors affecting the market of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the future are the direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push from manganese ore for ferromanganese silicon and the supply contraction (or contraction expectations) due to losses or "dual carbon" policies for ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports from South Africa and Gabon and the impact of "dual carbon" policies on ferroalloy supply [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke 1. Market Quotes - On March 3, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) continued to rebound after hitting the bottom, closing up 3.02% at 1127.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1522.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 204.5 yuan/ton; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, with a basis of 126 yuan/ton; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1197 yuan/ton, with a basis of 45 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed up 2.54% at 1694.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42.5 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Strategy Views - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. After the pre - holiday restocking of downstream steel mills and coking plants ended, the downstream will enter the active de - stocking stage from after the holiday until mid - April, which restricts consumption. At the same time, coal mines gradually resume production after the holiday, and coal production usually reaches its peak in March. For coke, the downstream also enters the active de - stocking stage, and the weakening price of coking coal reduces the support at the cost end. In addition, the market is still worried about the terminal demand for steel products and has low expectations for the "Two Sessions" policies, which together led to the weak performance of coking coal prices in the first week after the holiday. - In the medium - to - long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the total inventory of coking coal has decreased, but the downstream steel mills and coking plants are actively de - stocking, while the inventory of upstream mines is increasing, which will restrict the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term until the downstream restocks again in mid - to - late April. On the other hand, coal mines are gradually resuming production after the holiday, increasing the supply pressure. It was previously believed that the short - term upward momentum of coking coal and coke prices was weak, and there was a risk of a phased decline in coking coal prices from March to May. Currently, this view is being gradually verified. Although there is a short - term risk of a phased decline in coking coal prices, it is still expected that coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October when factors such as the safety production month and the peak consumption season overlap [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 1. Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.44% (- 120). The weighted open interest increased by 18,930 lots to 461,419 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 945 yuan/ton; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 595 yuan/ton [18]. - Strategy Views: The new energy sector declined yesterday, and industrial silicon increased in open interest and decreased in price. The price is oscillating weakly. After the holiday, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang increased, and the weekly output increased. According to the previous plan, large factories in Xinjiang will resume production in March, and the supply is expected to increase slightly. Currently, the production contraction elasticity in the southwest region is significantly smaller than the expansion elasticity, and the resumption of production is slow, with limited short - term increments. In terms of demand, the polysilicon production schedule in March is higher than that in February, and some bases in the northwest plan to resume production or conduct rotation overhauls. The production of organic silicon has increased. Overall, although the demand side is expected to improve marginally, the supply side also has a slight increase expectation in March. Industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the price will oscillate weakly. Attention should also be paid to the external impact of coal and coke trends on industrial silicon. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in the northwest and changes in downstream demand [19]. 2. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 43,700 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.74% (- 1230). The weighted open interest decreased by 2349 lots to 62,924 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, and the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.9 yuan/kg, all unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 8200 yuan/ton [20]. - Strategy Views: In terms of supply and demand, some bases in the northwest will resume production or conduct rotation overhauls in March, and the polysilicon production schedule is expected to increase. The inventory of silicon material factories is still at a high level, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - holiday policies and cost - push, but the silicon wafer sector is still in a state of low prices and high inventory, and the feedback to the silicon material sector is not good. The spot market for silicon materials was quiet after the holiday, with prices slightly loosening and mostly in a wait - and - see state. In terms of policy expectations, there are expectations of "anti - involution", and the anti - monopoly red line is being strengthened in a legalized manner. The open interest and liquidity of the polysilicon futures are still at a relatively low level since listing. The current main contract price has fallen below 45 yuan/kg, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. Attention should also be paid to whether there are new "anti - involution" - related statements in the important meeting [21][22]. Glass and Soda Ash 1. Glass - Market Quotes: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1054 yuan/ton, up 1.05% (+ 11). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1050 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On February 26, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 76.008 million cases, an increase of 20.656 million cases (+ 37.32%) from the previous week. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,920 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 30,693 lots [24]. - Strategy Views: There are rumors that a total of 4 glass production lines with a capacity of 2800 tons will be shut down for cold repair this month, and the market rebounded slightly, with the open interest decreasing and the price rising. In terms of demand, downstream processing plants will officially resume work after the Lantern Festival, and the demand release is slow. Traders are mostly in a wait - and - see state. Affected by the blocked shipment of original glass enterprises during the Spring Festival, the industry inventory has increased significantly. After the holiday, the total inventory of sample enterprises increased by 14.71 million weight cases compared with that before the holiday, and the de - stocking pressure is prominent. Although manufacturers generally raised prices during the "good start" window, in the context of weak demand and high inventory, the price increase is difficult. It is expected that the market will maintain a weak and oscillating pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 1015 - 1100 yuan/ton [25]. 2. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: On Tuesday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1218 yuan/ton, up 2.53% (+ 30). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1188 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day. On February 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 306,400 tons (+ 37.32%) from the previous week, including 895,900 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 139,500 tons, and 998,500 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 166,900 tons. In terms of open interest, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 12,825 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 4968 lots [26]. - Strategy Views: There are rumors that a large - scale enterprise plans to overhaul its soda ash production line, and the expectation of supply reduction has increased. In the spot market, the wait - and - see sentiment is still strong. The downstream of light soda ash has not fully resumed production, and the downstream of heavy soda ash mainly purchases on demand, with low overall purchasing enthusiasm. From the demand side, the main consumption industries such as glass and detergents are still in the transition stage of resuming production, and the actual procurement release is slow. It is expected that the market will maintain a narrow - range oscillating pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1240 yuan/ton [27].
2026-03-04：黑色建材日报-20260304
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-04 01:22