地缘扰动不断，成本?撑偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron Ore: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - Scrap Steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - Silicon Iron: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - Soda Ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]