棉花：等待新的驱动20260304

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. The trend strength of cotton is rated as 1, indicating a relatively neutral outlook [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,255 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.20% and a night - session decrease of 0.62%. CY2605 closed at 21,100 yuan/ton with no daily change and a night - session decrease of 0.59%. ICE Cotton 5 closed at 64.16 cents/pound with a decrease of 0.99%. The trading volume and positions of CF2605 and CY2605 changed compared to the previous day, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of Zheng cotton and cotton yarn also had corresponding changes [1] - Spot Data: The prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products showed different changes. For example, the price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 0.30%, while the 3128B index decreased by 0.25%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and its arrival price increased by 1.36% [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,190 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The trading of domestic cotton spot has improved, with most transactions based on locked basis. The basis of cotton spot has remained stable. Different regions have different basis quotes [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price of pure - cotton yarn has been stable with a slight decline. The market is in a wait - and - see state. The downstream market has not fully started, and the new orders in the pure - cotton yarn market are insufficient. The actual transaction price is significantly lower than the quoted price. The trading in the all - cotton grey cloth market has generally recovered, but there has been no significant improvement [2] - US Cotton: The ICE cotton futures continued to fall by nearly 1% due to the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the Iran situation [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 1, with the range of values being in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]