动力煤：上涨支撑不足，短期价格窄幅波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The upward support for thermal coal is insufficient, and the short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - 产地价格：The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 603 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 544 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 59 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 602 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - 港口价格：The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 753 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 67 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q5000 is 672 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 80 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q4500 is 584 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 61 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - 海外价格：The price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 61 dollars/ton, up 0.7 dollars/ton from the previous period and 10 dollars/ton from the same period last year; the price of Australian FOB Q5500 is 86.1 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 10.1 dollars/ton from the same period last year [1] - 2月长协价格：The price of port Q5500 is 680 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous period and 11 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 517 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 461 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 431 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports) is 0 [2] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, the market of northern ports was sluggish, with weak upward momentum in quotes. Some high - sulfur coal varieties had quotes below the index, and overall trading was limited. With the resumption of production in coal mines and the recovery of shipments, port inventories increased. Some early profit - taking traders were more willing to sell to realize profits, while downstream demand was low and sales were difficult. Considering the price inversion of imported coal and the tense international situation, the price is not likely to fall or the decline will be limited. In the imported thermal coal market, the ocean freight for imports soared, increasing costs [2] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 247.9 million tons, slightly lower than the actual supply of 254 million tons in 2025. Bloomberg reported that the preliminary coal production target for Indonesia in 2026 is 733 million tons, but this figure will be adjusted according to production cuts [2]