格林大华期货早盘提示：三油-20260304

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices soared, driving the collective strength of the vegetable oil sector. It is expected that the vegetable oil will show a strong trend, with existing long positions partially taking profits on rallies, and new long positions waiting for new buying points after corrections [1][2]. - For the double -粕 (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, there is a situation of wide supply and tight macro - expectations, with negative basis and positive outlook for the futures market. Existing long positions should be reduced, and new positions should wait for new buying points after corrections, with a medium - term wide - range oscillation expected [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On March 3, affected by the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, international crude oil prices soared, driving the vegetable oil sector to strengthen. The closing prices of the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with different changes in positions [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - On Tuesday, the US NYMEX crude oil futures rose by more than 4.7%, with the April crude oil futures contract rising by $3.33 to a settlement price of $74.56 per barrel [1]. - The White House announced a temporary trade agreement framework between the US and India, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency will submit a new biofuel blending volume authorization proposal to the White House on Wednesday, and the rule may be finalized by the end of March [1]. - The US government plans to require large refineries to make up at least half of the biofuel blending exemption quota, which strengthens the market expectation that the upcoming US biofuel policy will boost the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil [1]. - From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 17.78% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.1% month - on - month [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons of South American soybean oil per month [1]. - In February, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,149,063 tons, a 21.5% decrease from January. Exports to China increased by 17,800 tons to 58,000 tons [1]. - As of the end of the 9th week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of the three major edible oils was 2.0236 million tons, a weekly increase of 44,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.93% [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of March 3, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan per ton; the basis was 400 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan per ton [2]. - The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan per ton; the basis was 6 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54 yuan per ton. The palm oil import profit was - 314.56 yuan per ton [2]. - The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,040 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan per ton; the basis was 576 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 35 yuan per ton [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the US - Iran conflict is intensifying, international crude oil prices are rising strongly, the biodiesel concept is heating up again, and Malaysian palm oil is rising along with surrounding vegetable oils. The spot price is rising with the market, and the basis quotation is stable with a downward trend. The downstream traders have completed restocking, and the edible oil market has entered the traditional off - season of demand [2]. - Last week, the factory's operating rate increased but was only around 25%, the soybean oil output was limited, and the traders restocked, so the factory's soybean oil inventory still decreased at the end of last week [2]. - Although the Ministry of Commerce imposed an additional 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada over the weekend, due to the rapid escalation of the Middle East conflict, international oil prices are still strong, and it is expected that the Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures price may test the upper track of the daily line [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, existing long positions in edible oils should lock in profits and reduce positions, and new long positions should wait for new buying points after corrections. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [2]. 3.2 Double -粕 (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On March 2, due to tense overseas situations, international crude oil prices rose significantly, and macro funds entered the market. The double -粕 continued to rise, with the closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increasing compared to the previous day, with different changes in positions [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - As of last Thursday (February 26), the harvest progress of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean was 39%, compared to 30% last week and 50% in the same period last year. The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast was lowered to 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the January 26 forecast [2]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) lowered the February soybean export forecast by 800,000 tons to 10.69 million tons, but it is still 9.9% higher than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts expect that the net sales volume of US soybeans in the week ending February 19 will be between 400,000 and 1 million tons [2]. - There are rumors that customs in South China and East China will extend the inspection time by 5 days, which may be a prelude to the resumption of the auction of imported soybeans after the Spring Festival [3]. - As of the end of the 8th week of 2026, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans was 5.8012 million tons, an increase of 151,500 tons from last week [3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of March 3, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,116 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan per ton; the trading volume was 73,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 244 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per ton [3]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,530 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 34 yuan per ton; the trading volume was 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 70 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan per ton [3]. 3.2.4 Press Profit and Cost of Soybean Arrival - The April futures press profit of US soybeans was - 457 yuan per ton, and the spot press profit was - 197 yuan per ton. The April futures press profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 8 yuan per ton, and the spot press profit was 253 yuan per ton [3]. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for the April shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4,162 yuan per ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. 3.2.5 Market Logic - Externally, the pressure of the listing of Brazilian soybeans is prominent, the competitiveness of high - priced US soybeans has declined, and US soybean prices are under pressure. The strength of US soybean futures prices, the stability of Brazilian discounts, and the weakening of the offshore RMB jointly support the import cost, but the 3 - 5 spread has narrowed due to the weak spot market [3]. - In the spot market, the near - month basis continues to decline, oil mills are gradually resuming production, but the press profit of oil mills is poor, and the forward basis is relatively strong. Terminal buyers are mainly purchasing based on rigid demand [3]. - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the expected increase in global freight rates caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz provide risk premiums for the futures market. The market is also focusing on whether China will purchase an additional 8 million tons of US soybeans, which restricts the downward space of the double -粕 [3]. 3.2.6 Trading Strategy - Existing long positions should be reduced, new positions should wait for new buying points after corrections, and the medium - term trend is expected to be a wide - range oscillation. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different contracts [3].