观点与策略：国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260304

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures on March 4, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Indonesia's nickel mine reality is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March [2][4] - Stainless steel: The contradiction at the mine end is increasing marginally, and the cost support center is shifting upward [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: It is mainly affected by sentiment, and attention should be paid to the bottom support [2][13] - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment [2][17] - Polysilicon: Supply and demand are weakening, and the spot price may loosen [2][18] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,450 yuan, down 5,440 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 14,185 yuan, down 200 yuan. Other data such as trading volume, inventory, and price differentials are also provided [5] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala, and there are production quota adjustments and incidents such as landslides and production cuts in some mines [5][6][9] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 150,860 yuan, down 21,160 yuan from the previous day. Data on trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products in the lithium salt industry chain are also presented [14] - Macro and Industry News: Shenzhen issued a subsidy policy for car replacement, and Yongtai Technology plans to invest in a lithium - battery electrolyte project and cancel another project [15][16] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,205 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 43,700 yuan/ton, down 1,230 yuan. Data on trading volume, open interest, price differentials, inventory, and costs are provided [18] - Macro and Industry News: Six departments issued a guidance on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic modules [18][20] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]