国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out [2][4]. - Silver: In a volatile pattern [2][4]. - Copper: The sharp rise of the US dollar exerts pressure on prices [2][7]. - Zinc: Follows macro - level fluctuations [2][10]. - Lead: The reduction of domestic inventories limits price decline [2][13]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - level sentiment [2][16]. - Aluminum: Supply concerns are intensifying [2][20]. - Alumina: Focus on the commissioning of new production capacity [2][20]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Due to the spread of panic sentiment, platinum is in a weak position [2][24]. - Palladium: Remains at a low level [2][24]. - Nickel: The actual situation of the Indonesian mining end is catching up, and beware of its speculative nature in March [2][30]. - Stainless steel: The contradictions at the mining end are increasing marginally, and the cost support center is moving up [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,147.90 with a daily increase of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 1,159.98 with a night - session increase of 1.31%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 23,019 with a daily increase of 1.94%, and the night - session closing price was 23,927.00 with a night - session increase of 6.95% [4]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 12 kilograms, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 39,773 kilograms. The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged at - 5.42 [4]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is 1 [6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract was 102,100 with a daily decrease of 1.69%, and the night - session closing price was 101,330 with a night - session decrease of 0.75%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 33,376 [7]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 4,624 tons, and the LME copper inventory remained unchanged. The LME copper cash - 3M spread decreased by 24.54 [7]. - Macro and Industry News: US - Israeli strikes on Iran have pushed up oil prices, affecting US inflation and the Fed's interest - rate cut space. Hudbay Minerals has received approval to expand its Copper Mountain mine [7]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 24,370 with a daily decrease of 1.93%. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Zinc contract increased by 31, and the LME zinc trading volume increased by 5,385 [10]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 2,359 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,400 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 2.26 [10]. - News: Trump's measures to protect shipping in the Gulf and Qatar's closure of the LNG plant have affected the market [11]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,840 with a daily decrease of 0.33%. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Lead contract decreased by 6,926 [13]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 41 tons, and the LME lead inventory remained unchanged. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 3.13 [13]. - News: US - Israeli strikes on Iran have affected US inflation and the Fed's interest - rate cut space [14]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 394,890 with a daily decrease of 12.00%, and the night - session closing price was 387,840 with a night - session decrease of 8.31%. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Tin contract increased by 1,501 [16][17]. - Inventory and Spread: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 215 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 260 tons. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract decreased by 46,950 [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The US - Iran conflict has reignited "inflation concerns", and the probability of the Fed's second interest - rate cut this year has dropped to 50% [17]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 23,905, and the night - session closing price was 24,410. The closing price of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 2,807, and the night - session closing price was 2,797. The closing price of the main Aluminum Alloy contract was 22,750, and the night - session closing price was 23,090 [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 124.60 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons [20]. - Comprehensive News: Iran - related conflicts and Qatar's production suspension have affected the aluminum market. Goldman Sachs predicts that if the disturbance lasts for a month, the aluminum price may reach $3,600 [22]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trend intensity is 0; Aluminum Alloy trend intensity is 1 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 570.30 with a decrease of 8.97%. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 433.90 with a decrease of 6.42% [25]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Platinum decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX Platinum decreased by 907 ounces. The spread between PT9995 and PT2606 increased by 20.75 [25]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump's trade - related statements and the Iran situation have affected the market [29]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is - 1; Palladium trend intensity is - 1 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 135,450, and the closing price of the main Stainless Steel contract was 14,185 [31]. - Industry Chain Data: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1,088. The price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu remained unchanged at 14,950 [31]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and some nickel mines have production - related news [31]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [38].