宝城期货股指期货早报（2026年3月4日）-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of stock index futures are mainly range - bound, with an intraday view of being relatively strong [1][5]. - Recently, the negative impact of Middle - East geopolitical factors and the positive policy expectations of the Two Sessions are intertwined, leading to short - term range - bound movement of stock indices [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, and the intraday view is relatively strong, with an overall view of range - bound movement. The core logic is that the willingness to take profits rises under the influence of risk factors [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is relatively strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - The core logic is that yesterday, all stock indices oscillated and declined. The A - share trading volume was 3.16 trillion yuan, up from 3.05 trillion yuan the previous day, indicating a volume - based consolidation. The conflict between the US and Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacting the crude oil supply and causing a sharp rise in oil prices. Geopolitical factors weakened market sentiment. Rising oil prices may increase domestic manufacturing costs and reduce orders, and also affect the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. High - valued technology AI stocks with uncertain performance growth face the risk of valuation decline. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices had obvious declines in this correction. As the stock indices approach previous high levels, the willingness to chase up weakens, and the willingness of funds to take profits rises under geopolitical disturbances. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, positive policy expectations are fermenting, and the macro - policy side has a strong demand for support and a determination to support technological innovation. The policy direction and intensity in the government work report of the Two Sessions should be focused on [5].