宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-03-04-20260304

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures contracts 2605 will maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday view is weak and volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - Core Logic: Due to the military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased. Iran has announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil futures prices. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Additionally, a new rubber - tapping period is approaching. Under these bearish factors, the Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed a downward trend in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weak and volatile. The overall view is a weak operation [1]. - Core Logic: The military conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East over the weekend has led to an increase in geopolitical risks. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused crude oil futures prices to continue to strengthen. The rising oil prices have led to an increase in inflation expectations, potentially ending the global central bank's interest - rate cut cycle and starting an interest - rate hike cycle, strengthening the expectation of tight liquidity. Against this background, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2605 contract showed limited upward momentum and narrowed its gains in the night session on Tuesday, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Wednesday [7].