格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, most of the bond futures' main contracts opened slightly higher and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.09%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.01% [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly higher, fell in the morning and then rebounded, declined unilaterally in the afternoon, closed near the lowest point with a 2.97% drop, and the trading volume was 3.16 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 3.05 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 34.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 526 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 491.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26% (1.31% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45% (1.46% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.71 BP to 1.35%, the 5 - year increased by 0.39 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year increased by 0.46 BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year increased by 1.31 BP to 2.28% [1] - The central bank's net investment in treasury bond trading in the open market in February was 5 billion yuan [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In January, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year [1] - In January, RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan but a decrease of 420 billion yuan year - on - year [1] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared with the previous month [1] - In January, China's overall inflation level recovered moderately. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [1] - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation in January [1] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken" [1] - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the bank system's liquidity abundant [1]