东吴证券晨会纪要2026-03-04-20260304

Macro Strategy - The pricing logic of gold remains influenced by inflation employment data verification, Federal Reserve policy calibration, and geopolitical tensions, particularly the potential escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which could drive up gold prices significantly [1][16] - The market is expected to exhibit high-frequency fluctuations in the short term, while maintaining an upward trend in the medium term, characterized by event-driven and expectation swings [1][16] - The performance of gold ETFs, such as Huaan Gold ETF, closely tracks domestic gold spot price returns, with a total market value of 123.82 billion yuan as of February 27, 2025 [1][16] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced a monthly decline of 2.32% in February 2026, influenced by fears surrounding AI industry disruptions and fluctuating inflation data [2][17] - The index's price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) was 33.88, indicating it remains at a relatively high historical valuation despite a decrease from January [2][18] - Key upcoming events include the FOMC meeting and macroeconomic data releases, which will shape interest rate expectations and market sentiment [2][17] Price Surge Impact on Industries - The current surge in commodity prices, driven by geopolitical events, is leading to a significant profit restructuring across industries, with upstream sectors like oil and metals benefiting more than downstream manufacturing [3][19][20] - Industries facing the most pressure include automotive manufacturing, general and specialized equipment, and consumer goods manufacturing, due to cost shocks and weak demand [3][19][20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive by mid-2026, influenced by rising commodity prices, with a notable increase of 0.4% in January 2026, marking the largest rise in 28 months [3][19][20] Corporate Expansion Overseas - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is driven by overcapacity in domestic industries and rising global trade protectionism, with a shift towards proactive global capacity layout [22] - High-tech industries, such as consumer electronics and semiconductors, are leading the way in overseas revenue, with over 50% of their income coming from international markets [22] - The overseas expansion of companies is not only enhancing profit margins but also alleviating domestic competitive pressures, contributing positively to the overall economy [22]