格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market volatility has increased, and investors are advised to control their positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - COMEX gold futures dropped 3.99% to $5099.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.38% to $82.30 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract declined 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract decreased 5.89% to 21521 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of March 3, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 2.29 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1099.05 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 79.14 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15981.38 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 14.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0.3%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 37.1% [1] - Trump stated that after the 15% tariff deadline, tariffs on different countries will be gradually announced, and tariff agreements with some countries will be raised [1] - Regarding the Iran situation, foreign media reported that Israel has officially mobilized troops for a ground invasion of Lebanon. The US Senate will vote on the "War Powers Resolution" on Wednesday local time to seek to limit Trump's actions against Iran. Iran's ambassador to the United Nations said that Iran has not contacted the US regarding possible peace negotiations. Trump announced to provide insurance for maritime crude oil transportation, and the navy will escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On Tuesday, the US dollar index strengthened for the second consecutive day, rising 0.52% to 99.06 points. The yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise, closing at 4.06%. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields suppressed precious metals. The ongoing conflicts among the US, Israel, and Iran, the shipping obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz driving up oil prices and increasing the global inflation expectation, the further decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the increasing probability of interest - rate hikes in Europe, and the selling of US stocks leading to the liquidation of precious - metal positions and the take - back of profit - taking all led to the correction of precious metals on Tuesday, with silver showing greater volatility. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iran situation [1]