钢材：需求验证期的徘徊

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of March 2026, the steel industry is at a critical juncture where expectations are being reshaped and reality is being verified. The short - term core contradiction in the market lies in the actual verification of peak - season demand. Prices are expected to remain in a range - bound and weakly oscillating pattern under inventory digestion pressure. Attention should be paid to the policy tone of the Two Sessions and the actual resumption of work at construction sites [2][13]. - In 2026, the steel industry has entered a stage of parallel development of stock competition and structural upgrading. The marginal improvement in the real estate sector cannot support steel demand, and manufacturing and exports have become new demand pillars. The supply side is undergoing institutional optimization rather than simple production cuts, and the cost side is being reshaped by carbon constraints and mine expansion [12]. - During the "Golden March and Silver April" period, it is difficult to see a unilateral sharp rise in the market, but with policy support and structural transformation, the downside space is also limited. The black - series products are more likely to gradually increase their center of gravity in the oscillation [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Profit - repair - driven "Inertial Recovery" - Supply side: After the Spring Festival, hot - metal production has rebounded to over 2.33 million tons, and the blast - furnace operating rate has slightly increased. The production enthusiasm of long - process enterprises has recovered after marginal profit improvement. However, this round of recovery is more of an "inertial" nature rather than a trend - based expansion. There is a significant differentiation in product structure: hot - rolled coil production remains at a high level, supported by export orders and manufacturing prosperity, while rebar production is still in a contraction range year - on - year due to weak real - estate starts and continuous losses in electric - arc furnaces [5]. - Demand side: There is an obvious "time - difference dilemma". Although Shanghai has introduced the "Seven Measures for Optimizing the Real - Estate Market", the improvement in the sales end has a natural lag in being transmitted to the construction end. The apparent consumption of rebar is still at a seasonal low, and social inventory continues to accumulate. Peak - season demand still faces challenges [5]. 2. Main Themes of the Two Sessions: Supply Optimization Expectations, Structural Transformation, and Carbon - cost Visibility - Supply - side "Anti - involution" and Enterprise Classification Management: In late 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises meeting the new industry - standard conditions, which is seen as the institutional basis for a new round of supply optimization. This round emphasizes classification evaluation and differential constraints, and if the Two Sessions further strengthen this direction, the expected phased contraction of the supply side will offset high inventory [8]. - Demand - structure Shift towards "New - quality Productivity": Policies have clearly increased support for equipment renewal and technological transformation. The focus of steel demand has shifted from real - estate - driven to manufacturing - driven. Steel used in high - end equipment, new - energy vehicles, and green home appliances remains resilient, and the profitability of sheet metal is relatively dominant. The premium difference between products may become the norm [8]. - Cost Reshaping due to the Expansion of Carbon Trading: The steel industry will be substantially included in the national carbon market in 2026. The visibility of carbon - emission costs will increase the marginal cost of high - carbon - intensity enterprises and enhance the competitiveness of electric - arc - furnace short - process and green metallurgical technologies. The "cost floor" of steel prices will no longer be determined solely by iron ore but will also be constrained by carbon costs [9][11]. 3. Market Path: Direction Selection in Oscillation - In early March, the market is mainly engaged in policy gaming. Before the verification of real demand, prices are likely to remain range - bound. The real demand situation during the peak season from mid - to late March to April will determine the tone for the first half of the year. If the apparent demand for rebar recovers and inventory reaches an inflection point, combined with supply - optimization expectations, there is room for a corrective rebound in the black - series products; otherwise, a negative - feedback phenomenon may occur [12]. - In the context of the gradual repair of the credit environment, the differentiation trend among black - series products will be further strengthened. Rebar has certain bottom support under the "de - real - estate" policy framework but has limited upward driving force. The price performance of rebar is more of a valuation repair rather than a demand - driven trend. In contrast, the logic for sheet metal is clearer. Real - estate financing relaxation can indirectly drive sheet - metal demand through post - cycle links, and investment in infrastructure and manufacturing related to new - quality productivity provides medium - term support for sheet - metal products [12][13].