铁矿石：钢材出口预期转弱，矿价承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The expected weakening of steel exports puts pressure on iron ore prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of I2605 was 753.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (-0.13%). The position was 532,861 hands, a decrease of 9,866 hands [1] - Spot Prices: Imported ore prices (such as 65% Carajás fines, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jimbara fines, 56.5% Super Special fines) and domestic ore prices (such as 66% Hanxing ore, 65% Laiwu ore) showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [1] - Basis and Spreads: The basis and spreads of different varieties and contracts showed various changes, such as the basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton, and the spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [1] - Some steel enterprises in North China received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions in 2026, with a requirement to reduce blast furnace load by at least 30% from March 4 to March 11 [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2]