金信期货日刊-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran on February 28, Iran has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to disruptions in oil transportation, with many oil tankers pausing operations and a large number of ships anchoring. Energy - related commodity prices are expected to be affected, with the expected impact order being crude oil > fuel oil > low - sulfur fuel oil > LPG > methanol > asphalt > plastic > polyester > propylene > PP. Silver's price volatility is greater than gold, but gold has better long - term stability. The European shipping line may have a larger increase and a longer - lasting uptrend compared to 2025 [3]. - Morgan Chase warns that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the storage capacity of seven Middle - Eastern countries can only support production for "no more than 25 days", after which forced production cuts will occur. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and others predict that oil prices will start from $100 [4]. - The small - cycle of the stock index futures is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning. The rebound in the early trading tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - After the US - Israel military attack on Iran, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of cargo ships are gathered outside the strait, and at least 150 oil tankers are anchored in the high - seas of the Middle - Eastern Gulf across the strait, and at least 100 more are near the UAE and Oman coasts outside the strait [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The small - cycle of stock index futures is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning. The early - morning rebound tomorrow is a good opportunity to short [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold opened higher and fluctuated throughout the day. In the large - scale, it is still regarded as a fluctuating and slightly bullish trend [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments are maintaining a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, the mining capacity is in a release cycle, and there is still an expectation of a loose supply. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment. Technically, the trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a fluctuating trend [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume is slightly decreasing. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories are still accumulating. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday. Technically, the recent trend is unclear, and it should be regarded as a wide - range fluctuating trend [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Methanol - China imports about 14 million tons of methanol annually, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption (domestic production is about 92 million tons). About 60% of this 14 million tons of imports come from Iran. Overall, the Iranian supply has a weight of about 50% in the pricing of the domestic market. So, any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic market [20]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The trading sentiment in the pulp spot market is average. The inventory at domestic ports continues to accumulate, and it will take time to digest the post - holiday port inventory. Downstream paper mills are gradually resuming work, and some paper enterprises have issued price increase notices. The local price inversion of offset paper and coated paper is serious. The futures market has shown a range - bound consolidation recently [23].