宏观金融类：文字早评2026-03-04-20260304

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict, global risk appetite is disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are weakening, and US bond yields are climbing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. - The inflation rebound still exerts potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet solid, and the strength of the credit start is weak. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short-term market risk aversion sentiment is favorable for the bond market to rise. However, if the conflict lasts longer than expected, inflationary pressure may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - The strengthening of the US dollar index and the rise of the 10-year US bond yield have significantly suppressed the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the price of gold still has the risk of further decline. However, once the interest rate expectation changes significantly or the market risk aversion sentiment heats up again, the price of gold may rise again [7][8]. - The US's tough stance on the Middle East war has softened. Although risk appetite has been frustrated under the disturbance of the geopolitical situation, the key mineral resource attribute has strengthened to support the copper price. The short-term support for the copper price is strong, and it is expected to run in a range [11]. - The supply of aluminum in the Middle East is worried due to the closure risk of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East war. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be strong and run in a range [13]. - The zinc industry in China remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is still worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. During the conflict, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [15]. - Although there has been a large accumulation of lead ingots at home and abroad, the current lead price is at the lower edge of the shock range. The smelting profit of smelting enterprises that is declining marginally may narrow the surplus of lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. - In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia is gradually implemented, and the price center of nickel ore is rising. It is expected that the nickel price will slowly fluctuate upward. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and the inventory still maintains a small increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [17]. - Under the background of macro - easing and general price increases in the semiconductor industry, the market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong. However, it should also be noted that the supply and demand of tin ingots are marginally loose, and the inventory has steadily increased recently. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The tension in the Iran situation has led to a significant correction in lithium carbonate and other previously rebounding varieties. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market in the future [20]. - The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end continues to be in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the futures price may maintain a wide - range shock [22]. - With the continuous intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are generally under pressure to fall back. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased significantly, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern [24]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong. After the festival, the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises will promote the improvement of demand. Coupled with supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price is expected to be strong [26]. - The current fundamentals of the black system are significantly weaker than expected before the festival. In the short term, the core contradiction is still inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, the price is unlikely to reverse the trend and is likely to continue the range - bound and weak pattern [29]. - After the end of the weather influence, the overseas supply recovers, and the high inventory suppresses the price increase. The iron water production on the demand side recovers well. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in March [31]. - In the short term, the coking coal and coke market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility, and the black sector is in a weak state. There is a risk of a phased correction in coking coal in the short term, but it is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market in 2026, especially from June to October [36]. - The glass market is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern in the short term due to high inventory and slow demand release. The soda ash market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock pattern due to the expected reduction in supply and slow demand release [38][40]. - In the long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue, but the short - term market may continue to fluctuate and reduce volatility. The black sector is in a weak state. The future trend of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors. Attention should be paid to possible changes in manganese ore supply and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [43][44]. - The industrial silicon is expected to show a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price will fluctuate weakly. The polysilicon price is expected to continue to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to whether there are new "anti - involution" related statements in important meetings [46][49]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For crude oil, a mid - term layout is the main operation idea, but it is necessary to wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail risks. For methanol, it is recommended to take profits when the price is high. For urea, it is recommended to short - allocate on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit to fall to a low level before considering long - entry opportunities. For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the short - term rebound is driven by the sentiment of crude oil cost. For ethylene glycol, pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. For p - xylene, pay attention to the follow - up situation in the medium term. For polyethylene and polypropylene, the prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts and seasonal factors, and for polypropylene, it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [54][56][58][60][64][66][69][71][73][76]. - For live pigs, the near - term contract should be treated with a short - bias after the rebound, and the far - end contract should not be over - chased. For eggs, pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - end contract. For soybean and rapeseed meal, wait for the price to pull back before trying to buy. For oils and fats, go long at low prices. For sugar, go long with a small amount at low prices. For cotton, go long at low prices [79][81][83][86][88][90]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - Market Information: The US stock panic index VIX rose 24% to 26.6 points; the European natural gas price increase expanded to 40% to 62.5 euros/MWh, and it rose more than 100% in two days; the US State Department issued 6 evacuation orders; the top five in the global AI application monthly active list are ChatGPT, Doubao, Qianwen, Quark, and DeepSeek, with Qianwen's growth rate reaching 552% [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Tuesday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed by 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to 11th. The central bank conducted 343 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4917 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The inflation rebound has potential pressure on the bond market. The endogenous power of economic recovery is not solid. The US - Iran conflict has increased short - term risk aversion sentiment, but if the conflict lasts long, inflation may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may push up inflation expectations, and the Fed officials' cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts supports the US dollar [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US bond yields suppress the prices of gold and silver. If the US bond yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, the gold price may fall; otherwise, it may rise. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the reference range of Shanghai gold at 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver at 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Affected by the Middle East war, copper prices fluctuated lower. LME copper 3M contract fell 0.92% to 12964 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101330 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot discount in East China and Guangdong narrowed, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The US's stance on the Middle East war has softened. The key mineral resource attribute supports the copper price. The short - term support for the copper price is strong, with the reference range of Shanghai copper at 100000 - 104000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at 12700 - 13300 US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: Affected by the Middle East war, the supply of aluminum was disturbed, and the price rose. LME aluminum 3M contract rose 2.83% to 3275 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24410 yuan/ton. The position of Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots has reached a high level, but it is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The Middle East war has increased the supply concern of aluminum. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be strong, with the reference range of Shanghai aluminum at 24000 - 25000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M at 3220 - 3350 US dollars/ton [13]. Zinc - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 1.90% to 24401 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 55.5 to 3300 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of zinc ingots increased, and the import loss was - 2660.88 yuan/ton [14][15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small, but the market is worried about trade disruptions and energy price increases. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely during the conflict [15]. Lead - Market Information: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index fell 0.27% to 16847 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 13.5 to 1964.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories of lead ingots increased, and the import profit was 598.52 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead ore inventory and TC increased slightly, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased. The smelter's operating rate declined, and the downstream demand has not fully recovered. It is expected that the lead price will stop falling and stabilize in the short term and gradually recover as the supply of lead ingots narrows [16]. Nickel - Market Information: On March 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.86% to 135450 yuan/ton. The spot premium and discount remained stable, and the price of nickel ore was flat. The price of ferronickel continued to rise [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: In the medium term, the nickel price is expected to rise slowly. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate to digest the inventory pressure. It is recommended to sell high and buy low, with the reference range of Shanghai nickel at 120000 - 160000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M at 16000 - 20000 US dollars/ton [17]. Tin - Market Information: On March 3rd, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 11.06% to 394890 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is worried, but there is no impact on production for the time being. The production of refined tin is at a low level, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The market sentiment of going long on the tin price is strong, but the supply and demand are marginally loose, and the inventory has increased. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. It is expected that the tin price will run in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of the domestic main contract at 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin at 47000 - 52000 US dollars/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 8.16% to 159322 yuan. The LC2605 contract fell 12.30% to 150860 yuan, and the premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 950 yuan [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The tension in the Iran situation has led to a correction in lithium carbonate. The lithium price callback may release spot buying. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm, changes in the spot market premium and discount, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. The reference range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 138000 - 160000 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - Market Information: On March 3rd, the alumina index rose 1.24% to 2820 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price in Shandong rose, and the import loss was - 4 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the price of ore remained stable [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the contraction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end is in surplus, and the high - level registration of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the reference range of the domestic main contract A02605 is 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract fell 1.39% to 14185 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the raw material price increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With the intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, non - ferrous metals are under pressure. The supply - side pressure of stainless steel has increased, but the market procurement atmosphere has improved. It is expected that stainless steel will maintain a volatile upward pattern, with