贵金属：贵金属日报2026-03-04-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is cautiously bearish on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise of the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, along with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz increasing future inflation expectations and the Fed officials' cautious signals on interest - rate cuts, support the US dollar index and suppress gold and silver prices, causing short - term price declines. If the Treasury yield continues to rise and the US dollar remains strong, gold prices still face a risk of further decline. However, if the interest - rate expectations change or the market's risk - aversion sentiment heats up again, gold prices may rise again [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On March 4, 2026, Shanghai gold futures fell 3.78% to 1144.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 1.88% to 21521.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 3.99% to 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 7.38% to 82.30 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 99.05 [2] 3.2 Strategy View - The strategy is to be cautiously bearish. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1100 - 1170 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 20900 - 21800 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.3 Key Data of Gold and Silver - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 5099.50 US dollars/ounce, down 4.43% from the previous day; the trading volume was 25.97 million lots, up 17.73%; the open interest was 42.02 million lots, up 3.22%; the inventory was 1029 tons, down 0.30% [6] - LBMA Gold: The closing price was 5313.90 US dollars/ounce, up 1.75%; the closing price of the active contract was 1182.00 yuan/gram, down 1.27%; the trading volume was 54.49 million lots, up 24.12% [6] - SHFE Gold: The open interest was 29.48 million lots, down 4.85%; the inventory was 105.06 tons, unchanged; the settled funds were 55.76 billion yuan, down 6.06% [6] - AuT + D: The trading volume was 81.12 tons, up 33.10%; the open interest was 243.29 tons, up 2.25% [6] - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 82.30 US dollars/ounce, down 8.16%; the open interest was 12.55 million lots, down 4.59%; the inventory was 11047 tons, down 0.67% [6] - LBMA Silver: The closing price was 94.62 US dollars/ounce, up 5.16%; the closing price of the active contract was 21645.00 yuan/kilogram, down 11.40%; the trading volume was 191.03 million lots, up 43.74% [6] - SHFE Silver: The open interest was 51.39 million lots, down 3.06%; the inventory was 307.48 tons, down 0.63%; the settled funds were 30.032 billion yuan, down 14.11% [6] - AgT + D: The trading volume was 504.11 tons, down 38.53%; the open interest was 2979.878 tons, up 0.97% [6] 3.4 ETF Holdings - Gold ETFs: The holdings of SPDR US, iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, GOLD UK, and SGBS Switzerland were N/A, 499.61 tons, 30.66 tons, 54.37 tons, 29.81 tons, and 35.29 tons respectively. The holdings of iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, and GOLD UK remained unchanged, and SGBS Switzerland decreased slightly [63] - Silver ETFs: The closing price was 74.68 US dollars, down 8.45%. The holdings of SLV US, ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada were N/A, 486.13 tons, 6747.36 tons, and 1583.04 tons respectively. The holdings of ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, and CEF Canada remained unchanged [63]