宁证期货今日早评-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues, inflation expectations rise, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is delayed to September. Gold is under pressure in the short - term but has support from the safe - haven sentiment and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - The domestic methanol market has high - level production and inventory. With the resumption of some downstream industries after the festival, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The tense situation in the US - Israel - Iran may lead to a decrease in the high - level inventory expectation [2] - The price of live pigs is weak in the short term due to oversupply, but the downward space of the futures price is limited in the medium term, and the far - month contracts are accelerating to build a bottom [4] - The palm oil price is supported by the expected decline in Malaysia's February inventory, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. The domestic import profit of palm oil has been significantly repaired, and recent ship purchases have increased [5] - The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate in a range with an upward - moving price center, supported by the high - running US soybeans and restricted by the high inventory of domestic oil mills and sufficient downstream feed enterprise inventories [5] - During the Two Sessions, the policy is in a short - term window period, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term and show a triangular oscillating convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [6] - Palladium is bearish in the short term and may oscillate in the medium term, waiting for further clarification of the Fed's policy [6] - The copper price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, supported by supply - side disturbances but restricted by weak reality and high inventory [8] - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate with the sector sentiment. The Indonesian policy provides medium - to - long - term support, but the short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose [8] - The policy on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components is beneficial to the long - term development of the casting aluminum industry. Currently, the price of casting aluminum alloy mainly follows the aluminum price and oscillates [9] - The domestic soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with high - level supply, tepid downstream demand, and high enterprise inventory [10] - The oil and gas prices continue to be strong due to the intensified war in the Middle East, but the supply pressure will increase in April as OPEC + announces production increase. It is recommended to hold long positions [10][11] - The PTA price is driven by the cost due to the strengthening of crude oil, but the supply - demand drive is limited as the polyester inventory is large and the weaving end has no actual orders [11] - The natural rubber market is expected to be treated with an oscillating mindset and be short - term bearish, affected by the approaching off - season of overseas production areas, unfavorable supply - demand data, and the departure of previous long - position funds [12] - The PVC market price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term, with sufficient supply, continued inventory accumulation, and limited export due to shipping fluctuations [13] 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Gold - The Middle East conflict continues, inflation expectations rise, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is delayed, the US dollar index rises, which pressures gold. However, the safe - haven sentiment provides support, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 8.01 tons to 10.14 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang rose by 177 yuan/ton to 2505 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 1.45 tons to 144.67 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 2.8 tons to 34.03 tons. The domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization rate increased by 0.68% to 92.75%, and the downstream total capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 69.61%. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Live Pigs - On March 3, the national average wholesale price of pork was 17.22 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from the previous day, and the price of eggs was 7.58 yuan/kg, down 0.1%. The price of live pigs is weak due to oversupply, but there are signs of a stop - fall, and the downward space of the futures price is limited in the medium term [4] Palm Oil - Market institutions expect Malaysia's February palm oil inventory to fall to 263 tons, a 6.52% decrease from January. The production in February is expected to be 130 tons, a 17.8% decrease from the previous month. The price is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [5] Soybean Meal - As of March 3, the domestic soybean meal spot market price rose slightly. The support from the high - running US soybeans and the high domestic inventory situation lead to an expected range - bound oscillation with an upward - moving price center [5] Five - Year Treasury Bonds - During the Two Sessions, the policy is in a short - term window period, and the bond market is expected to oscillate in the short term and show a triangular oscillating convergence in the medium term, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [6] Palladium - The Fed's potential balance - sheet reduction and the rising inflation expectation in the Middle East put pressure on palladium. It is bearish in the short term and may oscillate in the medium term [6] Copper - The interruption of the copper export channel in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a limited actual impact. The copper price is currently affected by macro - sentiment and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Nickel - Indonesia plans to reduce nickel production in 2026 to 2.09 billion tons. The current supply is not in short - supply, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate with the sector sentiment [8] Casting Aluminum - The policy on promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components is beneficial to the long - term development of the casting aluminum industry. Currently, the price mainly follows the aluminum price and oscillates [9] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash rose by 4 yuan/ton to 1230 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 1.22% to 77.43 tons, and the inventory increased by 19.29% to 189.44 tons. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [10] Crude Oil - The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 5.6 million barrels in the week ending February 27. The war in the Middle East intensifies, and OPEC + will increase production in April. The oil price is strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions [10][11] PTA - The polyester inventory is large, and the weaving end has no actual orders. The PTA price is driven by the cost due to the strengthening of crude oil [11] Natural Rubber - The overseas production areas are approaching the off - season, and the supply - demand data is unfavorable. The rubber price is expected to be short - term bearish and be treated with an oscillating mindset [12] PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC rose by 50 yuan/ton to 4680 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate increased by 0.83% to 80.09%, and the social inventory increased by 1.71% to 122.7 tons. The market price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly in the short term [13]