元瞻经纬总量月报（2026年2月）：近期宏观经济数据跟踪-20260304

Group 1: Macro Economic Data Tracking - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline, with January 2026 PPI year-on-year drop at -1.4%, marking six consecutive months of improvement and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [11][24] - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3% in January 2026, influenced by seasonal factors and insufficient effective demand, with production and new orders indices also declining [24][31] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a mild recovery, with January 2026 CPI year-on-year growth at 0.2%, indicating potential improvement in domestic demand [40][42] Group 2: Industrial Production and Price Trends - The rise in international non-ferrous metal prices significantly boosted upstream mining and smelting prices, with January 2026 year-on-year increases of +22.7% and +17.1% respectively [14] - The construction of a unified national market has begun to show results, with prices in cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery production rising for four consecutive months [14] - AI investment expansion has led to price increases in related industries, with electronic semiconductor materials and storage devices seeing month-on-month increases of +5.9% and +4.0% respectively [15] Group 3: Fiscal Performance - In December 2025, general public budget revenue decreased by 24.95% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [52][55] - The overall public budget expenditure in December 2025 saw a decline of 1.77%, with a completion rate of 96.76% for the year, indicating a slowdown in fiscal spending [65][66] - Government fund income for 2025 showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 7%, with land transfer income down by 14.7% [72][74] Group 4: Financial Sector Insights - The financial data for January 2026 indicated a divergence in social financing and credit performance, with M1 growth rebounding to 4.9% and M2 continuing to rise at 9% [76][82] - The total social financing in January 2026 reached 7.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 166.2 billion yuan, supported by government bond issuance [81][82] - The financing demand from the real economy remains mixed, with a notable shift towards government bonds and a decline in traditional bank loans [76][81]