新能源及有色金属日报：短期下游消费未见改善-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term downstream consumption has not improved. The Middle East crisis has led to concerns about overseas ore transportation and problems with Iranian zinc ore supply, exacerbating the ore supply issue. The high price of by - products has narrowed the comprehensive smelting losses, and smelters still have a rigid demand for ore and the demand is expected to increase. The low TC at the ore end supports the zinc price. In the domestic market, it takes time for the spot market to recover after the holiday, and the spot market trading is still weak even if traders lower the premium. There is an optimistic long - term expectation for the macro and actual consumption, and opportunities for buying and hedging at low prices should be sought [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$20.60/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,400 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -90 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,360 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of -130 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,390 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of -100 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On March 3, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,890 yuan/ton and closed at 24,370 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 186,915 lots, and the open interest was 95,476 lots. The highest price was 24,955 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,320 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of March 3, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 254,600 tons, a change of 34,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 95,375 tons, a change of -1,400 tons from the previous trading day [4]