早间评论-20260304

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected to face certain pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. - For the stock index market, the volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, market volatility is expected to significantly increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [12][13][14]. - For the steel products market, investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [15][17][20]. - For the energy market, the crude oil main contract is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities [24][25][26]. - For the chemical products market, polyolefins and some chemical products are expected to be bullish, and investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [27][38][39]. - For the agricultural products market, different products have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, while sugar is recommended for a wait - and - see approach [73][74][77][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bonds - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.09% to 112.770 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01% to 108.500 yuan, the 5 - year main contract remained flat at 106.065 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% to 102.470 yuan [5]. - Open Market Operations: On March 3, the central bank conducted 34.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate. With 526 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 491.7 billion yuan [5]. - Outlook: The current macro - data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies to take effect. The global economic and financial situation is stable, and the global financial market risk appetite is high. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, and caution should be maintained [5]. 3.2 Stock Index - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 1.29%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.83%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract fell 4.24%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 3.57% [7]. - New Account Data: In February 2026, there were 2.523 million new A - share accounts opened, a 49% month - on - month decrease and an 11% year - on - year decrease. There were 239,700 new fund accounts opened, a significant decline from 546,300 in January. In February, there were 117,000 new margin trading accounts opened, a 20% year - on - year increase [7]. - Outlook: The domestic economy is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, core inflation continues to rise, and the policy environment is favorable. Market sentiment is rising, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. The global financial market risk appetite is high, and it is expected that overseas macro - disturbances will have limited impact. The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and long positions can be held [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,182 with a decline of 1.27%, and the silver main contract closed at 21,645 with a decline of 11.40% [11]. - Geopolitical and Economic News: Trump submitted a notice to Congress regarding the military action against Iran on February 28. The eurozone's February CPI and core CPI data showed an increase [11]. - Outlook: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The medium - to - long - term logic of precious metals remains strong. The global economic and financial situation is generally stable, and geopolitical factors such as the Iran situation are expected to have limited impact. The previous sharp rise in precious metals has been fully priced in the market, and there is currently no significant fundamental driver. It is expected that market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [12][13][14]. 3.4 Steel Products (including螺纹, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦煤焦炭, 铁合金) - 螺纹 and 热卷 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,070 - 3,190 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was between 3,220 - 3,240 yuan/ton [15]. - Supply and Demand: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and rebar demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market is in the off - season of demand. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, the weekly output of rebar is at a low level, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The inventory increase during the Spring Festival was the lowest in recent years [15]. - Outlook: Rebar prices still lack bullish drivers but are at a low valuation. The fundamental logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [15][16]. - 铁矿石 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The port spot price of PB powder was 752 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 640 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply and Demand: The daily output of molten iron in the country has rebounded month - on - month, but steel mills may limit production during key meetings, which will suppress iron ore demand. In 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise and were at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [17]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may test the support near the previous low again. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17][18][19]. - 焦煤焦炭 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to rebound [20]. - Supply and Demand: The conflict between the US and Iran has a limited impact on the domestic coking coal and coke supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the main coal - producing areas have basically resumed production, and the supply side is gradually recovering. The demand side is generally weak. For coke, the supply side is stable, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises is not large. The daily output of molten iron in the country has rebounded month - on - month, but steel mills may limit production during key meetings, which will put pressure on the coke price. There is an expectation of a price cut for coke spot [20]. - Outlook: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [20][21]. - 铁合金 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 1.16% to 6,118 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 1.12% to 5,786 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin manganese - silicon increased by 50 yuan/ton to 5,850 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5,350 yuan/ton [22]. - Supply and Demand: The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased to 107,900 tons in the week of February 27. The supply of Australian ore gradually returned to normal, and the port manganese ore inventory increased by 650,000 tons to 4.95 million tons. The main - producing area electricity price and the prices of coke and semi - coke were stable. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuated slightly at a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills in the week of February 27 was 1.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month. The output of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron increased by 3,600 tons and 600 tons respectively compared with the previous week. The weekly output was at a relatively low level in the past five years, and the short - term over - supply situation was slightly alleviated, but the supply surplus still led to inventory accumulation [22][23]. - Outlook: The current cost has limited downward space at a low level, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening. Since 2026, the output of ferroalloys has remained at a low level, and the demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [23]. 3.5 Energy (including原油) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil closed at the daily limit again due to the ongoing Middle East war [24]. - Market News and Data: Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. The US and Israel launched a large - scale joint military strike against Iran, and the Middle East situation has escalated. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April [24]. - Outlook: The increase in CFTC net long positions indicates that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. OPEC's production increase is less than expected and cannot fill the gap left by Iranian crude oil. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran shows signs of escalation, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports oil prices. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities in the crude oil main contract [24][25][26]. 3.6 Chemical Products (including聚烯烃, 合成橡胶, 天然橡胶, PVC, 尿素, 对二甲苯PX, PTA, 乙二醇, 短纤, 瓶片, 纯碱, 玻璃, 烧碱, 纸浆) - 聚烯烃 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market reported a rapid price increase. The geopolitical risk and the increase in international oil prices led to a high - level speculation atmosphere in the market. The拉丝 mainstream price was between 6,950 - 7,200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in the Yuyao market increased by 200 - 400 yuan/ton [27]. - Outlook: In the short term, affected by macro - policies, the increase in crude oil prices provides strong cost support for PE and PP. Although the production enterprise maintenance has decreased after the holiday, downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. Driven by the macro - sentiment, the mentality of industry players has improved. It is expected that the polyolefin market price will be bullish in the short term. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - 合成橡胶 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 3.64%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 13,800 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [28]. - Supply and Demand: Affected by the conflict, the synthetic rubber price may rise in the short term. In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the post - holiday demand recovery. On the raw material side, butadiene may rise driven by crude oil this week, and the price is significantly affected by cost. On the supply side, most butadiene rubber plants maintained high - load operation this week, and only the load of an individual butadiene rubber plant in Shandong decreased slightly. In addition, the butadiene rubber plants of Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Chuanhua are expected to be overhauled in March. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises recovered slightly at a low level. On the inventory side, as of February 25, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [28]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - 天然橡胶 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 1.55%, the 20 - rubber main contract fell 1.75%, and the Shanghai spot price was adjusted down to around 16,100 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [30]. - Supply and Demand: The weekend conflict may drive the short - term rise of natural rubber through the transmission from crude oil to synthetic rubber. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the fundamentals of natural rubber, especially the inventory situation from March to April. On the supply side, the global main - producing areas have entered the seasonal low - production period, and the output is in short supply, and the raw material price continues to strengthen. On the demand side, enterprises have resumed work as planned after the holiday, and the tire capacity utilization rate is in the recovery stage. On the inventory side, the domestic natural rubber inventory continued the pre - holiday inventory accumulation trend, and the inventory accumulation was mainly concentrated in Qingdao [31]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [32]. - PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 2.49%, the spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the basis remained basically stable [33]. - Supply and Demand: The overseas geopolitical risk has brought supply concerns, which conflict with the domestic seasonal demand off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory trend. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of PVC plants increased by 0.01% this week, and the PVC output increased by 0.01% month - on - month. On the demand side, as of February 26, 2026, the start - up rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises was 13.60%, a month - on - month increase. On the cost - profit side, the supply of US dollar - denominated ethylene is insufficient, which has an obvious supporting effect on the US dollar market. For calcium carbide, the demand support is unstable, and the sentiment of expecting a price decline in calcium carbide is strong, and the short - term market is difficult to improve. The inventory of the PVC industry increased significantly this period. The inventory of the PVC industry (upstream + social) increased by 1.72% month - on - month, and the factory inventory and social inventory increased simultaneously this week [33][34]. - Outlook: The market is expected to be bullish and oscillating [35]. - 尿素 - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 0.38%, and the price in Linyi, Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [36]. - Supply and Demand: The conflict in Iran has a direct impact on the urea market supply. As the world's second - largest exporter, Iran has shut down many factories due to the conflict, and Egypt has also stopped production, resulting in a hard gap in global production capacity. This has led to a possible sharp increase in international fertilizer prices within a week, and the gap cannot be quickly filled. For China, although the domestic supply and demand are stable, large buyers such as India and Brazil will be forced to turn to China for emergency procurement, opening an export arbitrage window for Chinese enterprises. However, it is currently the spring plowing season, and there is no export for the purpose of stable production and supply. In the short term, it may be bullish and oscillating. The biggest risk point in the future lies in the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz. If it